400-member House
The House has 400 members, one of the largest legislatures in the world. Districts are named by county and number ('Hillsborough 12'); many elect several members, and voters pick as many candidates as there are seats.
New Hampshire › New Hampshire House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
New Hampshire House of Representatives: State House District Strafford 07
Projected flip: Independent-held seat, Democrats favored (55%).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Larochelle (D)
55%
chance of winning
Bourgeois (R)
45%
- Average margin
- D+0.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+9 to D+10
- Partisan lean
- R+4
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Independent-held seat, Republicans favored (58%).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Larochelle (D)
42%
chance of winning
Bourgeois (R)
58%
- Average margin
- R+2.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+15 to D+11
- Partisan lean
- R+4
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
John H. Larochelle
Republican
Eric Bourgeois
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- New Hampshire state offices
- −1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.28 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -2.53 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+4: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 4,467
- People per km²
- 181
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 35%
- White, no degree
- 58%of adults
- White 87%
- Hispanic 4%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
2,815 votes · R+8.9✓ Aidan Ankarberg (R)54.4%
David Herman (D)45.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
3,601 two-party votes · R+3.6 · R+2.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.8%
Kamala Harris (D)48.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
2,873 two-party votes · R+4.3 · R+8.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.2%
Joe Biden (D)47.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
2,310 two-party votes · R+14.8 · R+17.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.4%
Hillary Clinton (D)42.6%
Also on the ballot in New Hampshire
Neighboring districts
State House District Strafford 02Larry BrownGlenn Bailey3 seats86%Rep.79%Rep. State House District Strafford 04Kimberly S. McGlincheyKurt Wuelper3 seats63%Dem.63%Dem. State House District Strafford 06Daniel FitzpatrickDenise DeDe-PoulinFlip riskFlip risk57%Rep.55%Rep. State House District Strafford 08Ty WymanDavid WalkerFlip riskFlip risk58%Rep.54%Dem. State House District Strafford 12Billie ButlerPhilip Houde4 seats99%Dem.93%Dem. State House District Strafford 13Peter W. BixbyDaniel A. Furman>99%Dem.99%Dem.