DemocraticCandidate
Massachusetts › Massachusetts House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Massachusetts House of Representatives: 9th Essex District
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (67%).
Meaney is favored to win: Meaney wins in 2 of every 3 simulations.
Meaney (D)
67%
chance of winning
Wong (R)
33%
- Average margin
- D+3.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+7 to D+14
- Partisan lean
- D+5
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (90%).
Meaney is clearly favored to win: Meaney wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Meaney (D)
90%
chance of winning
Wong (R)
10%
- Average margin
- D+12.3
- 80% of outcomes
- Even to D+25
- Partisan lean
- D+5
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Massachusetts state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.6Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.15 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -30 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -40 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+5: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 39,014
- People per km²
- 949
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 42%
- White, no degree
- 44%of adults
- White 77%
- Hispanic 10%
- Black 4%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
18,114 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Donald H Wong (R)100.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
24,628 two-party votes · D+2.3 · D+3.8 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)51.1%
Donald Trump (R)48.9%
2022
13,664 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Donald H Wong (R)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
18,936 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Donald H Wong (R)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
27,888 two-party votes · D+12.0 · D+7.5 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)56.0%
Donald Trump (R)44.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
22,727 two-party votes · D+0.9 · R+1.3 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)50.5%
Donald Trump (R)49.5%
Also on the ballot in Massachusetts
Neighboring districts
10th EssexDaniel Cahill—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. 11th EssexSean Reid—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. 12th EssexThomas Walsh—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. 16th SuffolkJessica Giannino—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. 20th MiddlesexJoseph MarkeyTrevor CurrierD flipD flip85%Dem.91%Dem. 30th MiddlesexRichard Haggerty—D vs D>99%Dem.>99%Dem. 32nd MiddlesexJay Higgins—D vs D>99%Dem.>99%Dem. 33rd MiddlesexSteven Ultrino—>99%Dem.>99%Dem.