99chambers

Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

New Hampshire › New Hampshire House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

New Hampshire House of Representatives: State House District Hillsborough 15

2 seats

Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (83%).

Farley is clearly favored to win: Farley wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.

Farley (D)
83%
chance of winning
Proulx (R)
17%
Average margin
D+6.7
80% of outcomes
R+3 to D+16
Partisan lean
D+6
Polls
No pollsmodel only

Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (83%).

Farley is clearly favored to win: Farley wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.

Farley (D)
83%
chance of winning
Proulx (R)
17%
Average margin
D+8.9
80% of outcomes
R+4 to D+21
Partisan lean
D+6
Polls
No pollsmodel only

2 seats in this district

1.6 D · 0.4 R expected of 2 seats

1.6 D · 0.4 R expected of 2 seats

Statewide map: New Hampshire House of Representatives

How this race is decided

400-member House

The House has 400 members, one of the largest legislatures in the world. Districts are named by county and number ('Hillsborough 12'); many elect several members, and voters pick as many candidates as there are seats.

Range of outcomes

Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.

D+6.7R+30R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20D+30
D+8.9R+40R+20EvenD+20D+40

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Farley 83%Proulx 17%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Farley 83%Proulx 17%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast
New Hampshire state offices
−1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
Environment here
D+8.4Used by the fundamentals
Swing reaching this office
58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
New England adjustment
−2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by 58% of the environment andthe New England adjustmentD+9.5Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceD+7.1Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in New Hampshire andlook-alike placesD+6.5Polling averageNo polls of this racenot availableHorizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayD+6.7Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayD+8.9

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)-1
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)-0.04
Elected-experience edge0
First-term incumbent0
Seat's last result vs. expectation-15.4
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation0

Polls

No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.

The district

Lean D+6: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentR+9.2R+11.4 vs. nation2020 presidentD+1.2R+3.4 vs. nation2024 presidentD+7.7D+9.2 vs. nation

Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.

Who lives here

Population
11,358
People per km²
636
Adults with a B.A.+
30%
White, no degree
54%of adults
  • White 77%
  • Hispanic 16%
  • Black 1%
  • Asian 5%
  • Other / multiracial 2%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.

2024

9,412 votes · R+11.9
✓ Mark McLean (R)28.2%
✓ Mark Proulxr (—)27.7%
Thomas Katsiantonis (D)22.2%
Lara Quiroga (D)21.9%

2024 President Vote in this district

10,164 two-party votes · D+7.7 · D+9.2 vs. the nation
✓ Kamala Harris (D)53.9%
Donald Trump (R)46.1%

2022

7,262 votes · R+9.0
✓ Mark Proulx (R)27.7%
✓ Mark McLean (R)26.8%
Brandon Lemay (D)23.1%
Lara Quiroga (D)22.4%

2020 Earlier district lines

9,224 votes · R+3.1
✓ Mark Warden (R)28.3%
✓ Erika Connors (D)26.6%
Macy McNair (R)26.4%
Tommy Katsiantonis (D)18.7%

2020 President Vote in this district

5,556 two-party votes · D+1.2 · R+3.4 vs. the nation
✓ Joe Biden (D)50.6%
Donald Trump (R)49.4%

2016 President Vote in this district

4,989 two-party votes · R+9.2 · R+11.4 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)54.6%
Hillary Clinton (D)45.4%

Also on the ballot in New Hampshire

U.S. SenateChris PappasJohn E. Sununu94%Dem.91%Dem. GovernorCinde WarmingtonKelly Ayotte94%Rep.74%Rep.

Neighboring districts

State House District Hillsborough 02Catherine A. RombeauKristin NobleD flipD flip7 seats86%Dem.72%Dem. State House District Hillsborough 12Rosemarie L. RungMaureen MooneyD flipD flip8 seats86%Dem.71%Dem. State House District Hillsborough 14Paula PaciulanRaymond C. Peeples, Jr.2 seats89%Rep.80%Rep. State House District Hillsborough 16Ben BaroodyDavid A. Smith2 seats87%Dem.82%Dem. State House District Hillsborough 20Alissandra MurrayPierre M. Dupont2 seats95%Dem.90%Dem. State House District Hillsborough 26Patrick N. LongHenry Emele2 seats98%Dem.91%Dem. State House District Rockingham 16Jane CooperDavid Lundgren7 seats71%Rep.60%Rep.