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Florida › Florida House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Florida House District 38
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (78%).
Dean is favored to win: Dean wins in about 4 of every 5 simulations.
Dean (D)
78%
chance of winning
Buckley (R)
22%
- Average margin
- D+5.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+4 to D+15
- Partisan lean
- D+3
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (80%).
Dean is favored to win: Dean wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Dean (D)
80%
chance of winning
Buckley (R)
20%
- Average margin
- D+7.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+5 to D+21
- Partisan lean
- D+3
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Nik Dean
Republican
Emily Duda Buckley
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Florida state offices
- −1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.87 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -1.36 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+3: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 175,856
- People per km²
- 1,287
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 40%
- White, no degree
- 33%of adults
- White 54%
- Hispanic 26%
- Black 11%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
89,274 votes · R+0.8✓ David Smith (R)50.4%
Sarah Henry (D)49.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
90,444 two-party votes · D+1.6 · D+3.1 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)50.8%
Donald Trump (R)49.2%
2022
65,598 votes · R+4.6✓ David Smith (R)52.3%
Sarah Henry (D)47.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
98,436 votes · R+17.4✓ Randy Maggard (R)58.7%
Brian Staver (D)41.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
93,062 two-party votes · D+8.0 · D+3.5 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)54.0%
Donald Trump (R)46.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
77,595 two-party votes · D+2.8 · D+0.5 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)51.4%
Donald Trump (R)48.6%