Fusion voting
Candidates can run on several party lines, such as Working Families or Independent, and their votes on every line are added together. The forecast counts all of a candidate's lines.
Connecticut › Statewide offices · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Connecticut Attorney General
FusionTong is very likely to win: Tong wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Tong (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Bolton (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+27.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+21 to D+36
- Partisan lean
- D+16
- Polls
- 1in our database
Tong is very likely to win: Tong wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Tong (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Bolton (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+29.4
- 80% of outcomes
- D+20 to D+40
- Partisan lean
- D+16
- Polls
- 1in our database
Range of outcomes
How this race is decided
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
William Tong
Incumbent attorney general
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
Republican
John Bolton
Attorney, member of the Westport planning and zoning commission, and nominee for state representative in 2024
- Experience
- No elected office
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Connecticut state offices
- +0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
- Environment here
- D+9.8Used by the fundamentals
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 3.7 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 3.7 |
Polls
All 1 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Tong | Bolton | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire | Sep 17–Sep 21 | 540 LV | 57 | 30 | D+27 | D+31.3 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 21, 2026.
The state
Lean D+16: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 3,624,508
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 43%
- White, no degree
- 35%of adults
- White 62%
- Hispanic 18%
- Black 10%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
1,728,971 two-party votes · D+14.8 · D+16.3 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)57.4%
Donald Trump (R)42.6%
2022
1,250,886 votes · D+15.9✓ William Tong (D)57.1%
Jessica Kordas (R)41.4%
Ap Pascarella (OTH)0.9%
Ken Krayeske (OTH)0.6%
2020 President Vote in this state
1,795,548 two-party votes · D+20.4 · D+15.9 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)60.2%
Donald Trump (R)39.8%
2018
1,363,054 votes · D+6.1✓ William Tong (D)52.5%
Sue Hatfield (R)46.5%
Peter D Goselin (OTH)1.1%
2016 President Vote in this state
1,570,787 two-party votes · D+14.3 · D+12.1 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)57.1%
Donald Trump (R)42.9%