Democratic
Maine › Maine State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine State Senate District 18
Projected flip: Independent-held seat, Republicans favored (79%).
Andrews is favored to win: Andrews wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Bosworth (D)
21%
chance of winning
Andrews (R)
79%
- Average margin
- R+6.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+16 to D+4
- Partisan lean
- R+9
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Independent-held seat, Republicans favored (74%).
Andrews is favored to win: Andrews wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.
Bosworth (D)
26%
chance of winning
Andrews (R)
74%
- Average margin
- R+6.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+19 to D+7
- Partisan lean
- R+9
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
John E Andrews
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.65 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -18.69 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+9: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 37,285
- People per km²
- 25
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 26%
- White, no degree
- 70%of adults
- White 92%
- Hispanic 2%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
23,394 votes · R+29.7✓ Richard A Bennett (R)64.9%
Linda Kay Miller (D)35.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
24,155 two-party votes · R+9.4 · R+7.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.7%
Kamala Harris (D)45.3%
2022
19,075 votes · R+25.0✓ Richard A Bennett (R)62.5%
Colin D Oneill (D)37.5%
2020 Earlier district lines
21,087 votes · R+35.1✓ Lisa M Keim (R)67.6%
Gabriel M Perkins (D)32.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
22,792 two-party votes · R+5.8 · R+10.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.9%
Joe Biden (D)47.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
19,495 two-party votes · R+15.0 · R+17.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)42.5%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.