Democratic
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 17
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (58% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Russell (D)
58%
chance of winning
Bishop (R)
42%
- Average margin
- D+1.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+8 to D+11
- Partisan lean
- Even
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (57% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Russell (D)
57%
chance of winning
Bishop (R)
43%
- Average margin
- D+1.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+11 to D+14
- Partisan lean
- Even
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Steven Matthew Bishop
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.06 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -0.89 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -0.89 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean Even: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 9,928
- People per km²
- 23
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 33%
- White, no degree
- 64%of adults
- White 95%
- Hispanic 2%
- Black 1%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
5,527 votes · R+3.4✓ Steven M Bishop (R)51.7%
Ronald B Russell (D)48.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
5,549 two-party votes · D+0.1 · D+1.6 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)50.0%
Donald Trump (R)50.0%
2022
4,626 votes · D+3.2✓ Ronald B Russell (D)51.6%
Sherman H Hutchins (R)48.4%
2020 Earlier district lines
5,166 votes · R+21.8✓ Dwayne W Prescott (R)60.9%
Chelsea Ellary Sanders (D)39.1%
2020 President Vote in this district
5,335 two-party votes · Even · R+4.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.0%
Joe Biden (D)50.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
4,678 two-party votes · R+4.1 · R+6.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.0%
Hillary Clinton (D)48.0%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.