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Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

Alabama › Statewide offices · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Alabama Secretary of State

Dobson is very likely to win: Dobson wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.

Rogers (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Dobson (R)
>99%
Average margin
R+20.4
80% of outcomes
R+29 to R+12
Partisan lean
R+30
Polls
No pollsmodel only

Dobson is very likely to win: Dobson wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.

Rogers (D)
3%
chance of winning
Dobson (R)
97%
Average margin
R+20.7
80% of outcomes
R+35 to R+7
Partisan lean
R+30
Polls
No pollsmodel only

Range of outcomes

R+20.4R+40R+20EvenD+20D+40
R+20.7R+40R+20EvenD+20D+40

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Rogers <1%Dobson >99%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Rogers 3%Dobson 97%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast
Alabama state offices
−0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
Environment here
D+9.4Used by the fundamentals
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by the national and state moodR+19.9Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceR+20.4Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in Alabama and look-alikeplacesR+20.4Polling averageNo polls of this racenot availableHorizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayR+20.4Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayR+20.7

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)0
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)0
Elected-experience edge0
First-term incumbent0
Seat's last result vs. expectation-2.62
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation0

Polls

No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.

The state

Lean R+30: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentR+28.7R+31.0 vs. nation2020 presidentR+25.8R+30.4 vs. nation2024 presidentR+30.9R+29.4 vs. nation

Who lives here

Population
5,086,768
Adults with a B.A.+
28%
White, no degree
46%of adults
  • White 63%
  • Hispanic 6%
  • Black 26%
  • Asian 1%
  • Other / multiracial 4%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

2024 President Vote in this state

2,235,028 two-party votes · R+30.9 · R+29.4 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)65.4%
Kamala Harris (D)34.6%

2022

1,404,403 votes · R+35.9
✓ Wes Allen (R)65.9%
Pamela J Laffitte (D)31.1%
Jason "matt" Shelby (L)3.0%

2020 President Vote in this state

2,290,794 two-party votes · R+25.8 · R+30.4 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)62.9%
Joe Biden (D)37.1%

2018

1,690,361 votes · R+22.1
✓ John H Merrill (R)61.0%
Heather Milam (D)38.9%

2016 President Vote in this state

2,047,802 two-party votes · R+28.7 · R+31.0 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)64.4%
Hillary Clinton (D)35.6%

Also on the ballot in Alabama

U.S. SenateEverett WessBarry Moore>99%Rep.99%Rep. GovernorDoug JonesTommy Tuberville93%Rep.92%Rep.