Democratic
Wisconsin › Wisconsin State Assembly · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Wisconsin Assembly District 30
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (48% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Knoke (D)
48%
chance of winning
Zimmerman (R)
52%
- Average margin
- R+0.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+10 to D+9
- Partisan lean
- R+4
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (52% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Knoke (D)
52%
chance of winning
Zimmerman (R)
48%
- Average margin
- D+0.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+12 to D+13
- Partisan lean
- R+4
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Shannon Zimmerman
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Wisconsin state offices
- −0.7Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.15 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -2.29 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -2.29 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+4: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 65,194
- People per km²
- 110
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 47%
- White, no degree
- 49%of adults
- White 91%
- Hispanic 3%
- Black 1%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
37,464 votes · R+8.5✓ Shannon Zimmerman (R)54.2%
Alison H Page (D)45.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
37,435 two-party votes · R+4.5 · R+3.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.3%
Kamala Harris (D)47.7%
2022 Earlier district lines
30,276 votes · R+17.0✓ Shannon Zimmerman (R)58.5%
Sarah Yacoub (D)41.5%
2020 Earlier district lines
37,062 votes · R+11.9✓ Shannon Zimmerman (R)55.9%
Sarah Yacoub (D)44.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
35,036 two-party votes · R+1.1 · R+5.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.6%
Joe Biden (D)49.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
29,008 two-party votes · R+7.3 · R+9.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)46.3%