Democratic
Michigan › Michigan House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Michigan House District 31
Wayne is favored to win: Wayne wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
Wayne (D)
77%
chance of winning
Perry (R)
23%
- Average margin
- D+5.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+4 to D+15
- Partisan lean
- R+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Wayne is favored to win: Wayne wins in about 3 of every 5 simulations.
Wayne (D)
62%
chance of winning
Perry (R)
38%
- Average margin
- D+2.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+10 to D+15
- Partisan lean
- R+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Laura Perry
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Michigan state offices
- −0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.2Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.9 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 5.73 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+2: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 95,320
- People per km²
- 94
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 30%
- White, no degree
- 57%of adults
- White 76%
- Hispanic 4%
- Black 13%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
53,998 votes · D+1.3✓ Reggie Miller (D)50.6%
Dale Biniecki (R)49.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
54,485 two-party votes · R+2.8 · R+1.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.4%
Kamala Harris (D)48.6%
2022 Earlier district lines
41,846 votes · D+4.5✓ Reggie Miller (D)52.1%
Dale Biniecki (R)47.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
46,566 votes · D+12.5✓ William J Sowerby (D)56.3%
Lisa Valerio-Nowc (R)43.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
52,545 two-party votes · D+0.9 · R+3.7 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)50.4%
Donald Trump (R)49.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
42,898 two-party votes · D+0.1 · R+2.2 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)50.0%
Donald Trump (R)50.0%
Also on the ballot in Michigan
Neighboring districts
HD-24Ranjeev PuriAllison Fuller>99%Dem.99%Dem. HD-25Peter HerzbergDawn Udell>99%Dem.98%Dem. HD-26Dylan WegelaChris Dobis>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-29Darian CountsJames DeSana82%Rep.75%Rep. HD-30Omar FerdinWilliam Bruck98%Rep.97%Rep. HD-32Jimmie Wilson Jr.Mike Eller>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-33Morgan ForemanCatherine Rogers>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-34John E. DahlgrenNancy Jenkins-Arno98%Rep.95%Rep.