DemocraticIncumbent
Minnesota › Minnesota State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Minnesota State Senate District 4
Kupec is favored to win: Kupec wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Kupec (D)
80%
chance of winning
Peterson (R)
20%
- Average margin
- D+6.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+4 to D+16
- Partisan lean
- R+6
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Flip risk: Democratic-held seat, a toss-up (55% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Kupec (D)
45%
chance of winning
Peterson (R)
55%
- Average margin
- R+1.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+14 to D+11
- Partisan lean
- R+6
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Austin Peterson
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Minnesota state offices
- −1.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+7.9Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.05 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 14.44 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 14.44 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+6: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 86,553
- People per km²
- 25
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 38%
- White, no degree
- 54%of adults
- White 85%
- Hispanic 4%
- Black 4%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
42,997 two-party votes · R+6.8 · R+5.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.4%
Kamala Harris (D)46.6%
2022
30,345 votes · D+5.7✓ Rob Kupec (D)52.5%
Dan Bohmer (R)46.8%
Write-In (—)0.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
42,792 votes · D+9.2✓ Kent Eken (D)54.5%
Mark Larson (R)45.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
42,226 two-party votes · R+3.6 · R+8.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.8%
Joe Biden (D)48.2%
2016 Earlier district lines
38,853 votes · D+10.4✓ Kent Eken (D)55.1%
James Leiman (R)44.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
35,628 two-party votes · R+9.7 · R+11.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.9%
Hillary Clinton (D)45.1%