Democratic
Minnesota › Minnesota House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Minnesota House District 14A
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (62%).
Daisane is favored to win: Daisane wins in about 3 of every 5 simulations.
Daisane (D)
62%
chance of winning
Conway (R)
38%
- Average margin
- D+2.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+7 to D+12
- Partisan lean
- R+5
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (49% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Daisane (D)
49%
chance of winning
Conway (R)
51%
- Average margin
- R+0.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+13 to D+12
- Partisan lean
- R+5
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Mike Conway
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Minnesota state offices
- −1.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+7.9Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.51 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -5.83 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+5: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 47,459
- People per km²
- 268
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 30%
- White, no degree
- 47%of adults
- White 63%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 24%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
19,475 votes · R+12.9✓ Bernie Perryman (R)56.3%
Abdi Daisane (D)43.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
19,290 two-party votes · R+6.5 · R+5.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.3%
Kamala Harris (D)46.7%
2022
14,334 votes · R+1.4✓ Bernie Perryman (R)50.6%
Tami Calhoun (D)49.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
22,040 votes · R+8.1✓ Tama Theis (R)53.9%
Tamara Calhoun (D)45.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
18,738 two-party votes · D+1.6 · R+2.9 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)50.8%
Donald Trump (R)49.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
17,377 two-party votes · R+8.2 · R+10.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)45.9%