Democratic
Texas › Texas House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Texas House District 94
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (53% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Duzan (D)
53%
chance of winning
Bean (R)
47%
- Average margin
- D+0.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+9 to D+10
- Partisan lean
- R+10
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Bean is favored to win: Bean wins in about 3 of every 5 simulations.
Duzan (D)
37%
chance of winning
Bean (R)
63%
- Average margin
- R+3.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+16 to D+10
- Partisan lean
- R+10
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Cheryl Bean
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Texas state offices
- +0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.5How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.64 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0.98 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+10: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 198,075
- People per km²
- 1,173
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 38%
- White, no degree
- 32%of adults
- White 51%
- Hispanic 24%
- Black 14%
- Asian 7%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
78,722 votes · R+11.2✓ Tinderholt (R)55.6%
Wilkerson (D)44.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
79,628 two-party votes · R+9.7 · R+8.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.9%
Kamala Harris (D)45.1%
2022
61,971 votes · R+13.3✓ Tony Tinderholt (R)56.6%
Dennis Sherrard (D)43.4%
2020 Earlier district lines
75,730 votes · R+5.2✓ Tony Tinderholt (R)51.0%
Alisa Simmons (D)45.9%
Jessica Pallett (—)3.1%
2020 President Vote in this district
92,466 two-party votes · R+9.4 · R+13.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.7%
Joe Biden (D)45.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
75,873 two-party votes · R+22.2 · R+24.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)38.9%