Democratic
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 106
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (66%).
Youngs is favored to win: Youngs wins in 2 of every 3 simulations.
Youngs (D)
66%
chance of winning
Bagshaw (R)
34%
- Average margin
- D+3.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+7 to D+13
- Partisan lean
- D+4
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (78%).
Youngs is favored to win: Youngs wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
Youngs (D)
78%
chance of winning
Bagshaw (R)
22%
- Average margin
- D+6.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+6 to D+19
- Partisan lean
- D+4
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Barbara Bagshaw
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.11 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -8.56 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -8.56 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+4: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 8,176
- People per km²
- 119
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 43%
- White, no degree
- 51%of adults
- White 87%
- Hispanic 3%
- Black 1%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
5,682 votes · R+6.9✓ Barbara A Bagshaw (R)53.4%
Doris A Poland (D)46.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
5,934 two-party votes · D+4.0 · D+5.5 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)52.0%
Donald Trump (R)48.0%
2022
4,721 votes · R+0.5✓ Barbara A Bagshaw (R)50.3%
Dana Reed (D)49.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
4,103 votes · R+24.6✓ Amanda Noelle Collamore (R)62.3%
Ethan S Brownell (D)37.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
5,878 two-party votes · D+5.0 · D+0.4 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)52.5%
Donald Trump (R)47.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
4,863 two-party votes · R+5.7 · R+7.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.8%
Hillary Clinton (D)47.2%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.
Neighboring districts
HD-85Paul Harris WelchAdrienne Paul80%Rep.64%Rep. HD-86Abigail N GeerRolf A Olsen Jr.Flip riskFlip risk51%Dem.53%Dem. HD-104—R. Melissa Winslow>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-105Anne Palmer GrahamSusan E Fuller99%Dem.96%Dem. HD-107Joseph A CampbellMark C CooperD flipD flip78%Dem.77%Dem. HD-110Christina R.C. MitchellJason Lewis Copp>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-111Amy D Kuhn—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-128Suzanne M Salisbury—>99%Dem.>99%Dem.