Two representatives per district
Each of the 35 districts elects one senator and two representatives; voters pick up to two House candidates. Districts 26 and 28 are split into single-member subdistricts (A and B).
South Dakota › South Dakota House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
South Dakota Legislative District 28A
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (42% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Jewett (D)
42%
chance of winning
Hunt (R)
58%
- Average margin
- R+1.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+12 to D+9
- Partisan lean
- R+5
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (53% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Jewett (D)
53%
chance of winning
Hunt (R)
47%
- Average margin
- D+0.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+13 to D+14
- Partisan lean
- R+5
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Chastity "Chas" Jewett
RepublicanIncumbent
Jana Hunt
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- South Dakota state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.4 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -7.83 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -7.83 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+5: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 14,389
- People per km²
- 1
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 20%
- White, no degree
- 35%of adults
- White 39%
- Hispanic 1%
- Other / multiracial 60%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
4,455 votes · R+15.1✓ Jana Hunt (R)57.5%
Carl J Petersen (D)42.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
4,413 two-party votes · R+10.2 · R+8.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.1%
Kamala Harris (D)44.9%
2022
3,737 votes · D+1.2✓ Oren L Lesmeister (D)50.6%
Ralph Lyon (R)49.4%
2020 Earlier district lines
2,585 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Oren Lee Lesmeister (D)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
5,082 two-party votes · R+2.4 · R+6.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.2%
Joe Biden (D)48.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
4,286 two-party votes · R+10.6 · R+12.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)44.7%