Two representatives per district
Each legislative district elects one senator and two House members. Voters may pick up to two House candidates and the top two finishers win, so a district can split between the parties.
Arizona › Arizona House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Arizona Legislative District 4
2 seatsFlip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (47% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Gresham (D)
47%
chance of winning
Gress (R)
53%
- Average margin
- R+0.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+11 to D+9
- Partisan lean
- R+3
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (63%).
Gresham is favored to win: Gresham wins in about 3 of every 5 simulations.
Gresham (D)
63%
chance of winning
Gress (R)
37%
- Average margin
- D+3.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+10 to D+16
- Partisan lean
- R+3
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
2 seats in this district
0.9 D · 1.1 R expected of 2 seats
1.2 D · 0.8 R expected of 2 seats
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Karen Gresham
Democratic
Tammy Caputi
RepublicanIncumbent
Matt Gress
- Experience
- State legislature
RepublicanIncumbent
Pamela Carter
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Arizona state offices
- +0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.5How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.56 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -1.49 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -1.49 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+3: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 239,509
- People per km²
- 915
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 60%
- White, no degree
- 31%of adults
- White 75%
- Hispanic 12%
- Black 2%
- Asian 6%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
275,365 votes · R+6.5✓ Matt Gress (R)27.5%
✓ Pamela Carter (R)25.1%
Kelli Butler (D)24.1%
Karen Gresham (D)23.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
151,229 two-party votes · R+3.6 · R+2.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.8%
Kamala Harris (D)48.2%
2022
177,661 votes · R+1.8✓ Matt Gress (R)34.6%
✓ Laura Terech (D)33.4%
Maria Syms (R)31.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
102,457 votes · D+11.6✓ Charlene Fernandez (D)39.8%
✓ Joel John (R)31.5%
Geraldine Peten (D)28.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
152,900 two-party votes · D+0.9 · R+3.7 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)50.4%
Donald Trump (R)49.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
118,711 two-party votes · R+4.6 · R+6.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)47.7%