Two representatives per district
Each of the 35 districts elects one senator and two representatives; voters pick up to two House candidates. Districts 26 and 28 are split into single-member subdistricts (A and B).
South Dakota › South Dakota House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
South Dakota Legislative District 1
2 seatsFosness is clearly favored to win: Fosness wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Enfield (D)
6%
chance of winning
Fosness (R)
94%
- Average margin
- R+11.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+22 to R+2
- Partisan lean
- R+20
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Fosness is clearly favored to win: Fosness wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Enfield (D)
10%
chance of winning
Fosness (R)
90%
- Average margin
- R+12.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+26 to Even
- Partisan lean
- R+20
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
2 seats in this district
0.1 D · 1.9 R expected of 2 seats
0.2 D · 1.8 R expected of 2 seats
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Courtney Gale Enfield
RepublicanIncumbent
Nick Fosness
- Experience
- State legislature
Republican
Daniel Kjos
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- South Dakota state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.6 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 6.07 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+20: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 31,025
- People per km²
- 3
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 26%
- White, no degree
- 60%of adults
- White 77%
- Hispanic 4%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 18%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
21,424 votes · R+16.9✓ Logan Manhart (R)27.8%
✓ Christopher Reder (R)25.9%
Mark Sumption (D)19.7%
Steven D McCleerey (D)19.5%
Josh Dennert (L)4.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
8,010 two-party votes · R+23.7 · R+22.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.8%
Kamala Harris (D)38.2%
2022
18,029 votes · R+18.1✓ Tamara St John (R)31.8%
✓ Joe Donnell (R)28.5%
Steven D McCleerey (D)22.0%
Kay F Nikolas (D)17.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
14,901 votes · R+15.5✓ Tamara St John (R)41.3%
✓ Jennifer Healy Keintz (D)30.2%
Steven D McCleerey (D)28.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
15,071 two-party votes · R+18.1 · R+22.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.1%
Joe Biden (D)40.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
16,158 two-party votes · R+20.2 · R+22.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)39.9%