Two representatives per district
Each of the 35 districts elects one senator and two representatives; voters pick up to two House candidates. Districts 26 and 28 are split into single-member subdistricts (A and B).
South Dakota › South Dakota House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
South Dakota Legislative District 13
2 seatsKolbeck is favored to win: Kolbeck wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Horsted (D)
21%
chance of winning
Kolbeck (R)
79%
- Average margin
- R+5.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+16 to D+4
- Partisan lean
- R+12
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Kolbeck is favored to win: Kolbeck wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
Horsted (D)
28%
chance of winning
Kolbeck (R)
72%
- Average margin
- R+5.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+18 to D+7
- Partisan lean
- R+12
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
2 seats in this district
0.5 D · 1.5 R expected of 2 seats
0.6 D · 1.4 R expected of 2 seats
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Ali Rae Horsted
RepublicanIncumbent
Jack Kolbeck
- Experience
- State legislature
RepublicanIncumbent
John Hughes
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- South Dakota state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.88 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -30 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+12: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 25,203
- People per km²
- 981
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 52%
- White, no degree
- 42%of adults
- White 87%
- Hispanic 2%
- Black 4%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
15,005 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ John Hughes (R)51.5%
✓ Tony Venhuizen (R)48.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
14,272 two-party votes · R+10.7 · R+9.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.3%
Kamala Harris (D)44.7%
2022
11,758 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Sue Peterson (R)50.0%
✓ Tony Venhuizen (R)50.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
23,901 votes · R+7.1✓ Sue Peterson (R)28.2%
✓ Richard L Thomason (R)26.0%
Kelly A Sullivan (D)24.5%
Norman B Bliss (D)21.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
13,260 two-party votes · R+9.3 · R+13.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.7%
Joe Biden (D)45.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
9,638 two-party votes · R+17.4 · R+19.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)41.3%