DemocraticIncumbent
Rhode Island › Rhode Island House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Rhode Island House District 44
Costantino is clearly favored to win: Costantino wins in 6 of every 7 simulations.
Costantino (D)
85%
chance of winning
Hosey (R)
15%
- Average margin
- D+8.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+2 to D+19
- Partisan lean
- R+7
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Costantino is favored to win: Costantino wins in 3 of every 5 simulations.
Costantino (D)
60%
chance of winning
Hosey (R)
40%
- Average margin
- D+2.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+10 to D+15
- Partisan lean
- R+7
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Joseph Hosey
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Rhode Island state offices
- +3.9Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+13.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.34 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 16.94 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 16.94 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+7: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 14,248
- People per km²
- 344
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 47%
- White, no degree
- 47%of adults
- White 87%
- Hispanic 4%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
8,972 votes · D+7.7✓ Gregory J Costantino (D)53.9%
Peter Trementozzi (R)46.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
8,492 two-party votes · R+7.0 · R+5.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.5%
Kamala Harris (D)46.5%
2022
6,879 votes · D+8.4✓ Gregory J Costantino (D)54.2%
Peter Anthony Trementozzi (R)45.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
6,771 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Gregory J Costantino (D)94.7%
Writein (—)5.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
8,750 two-party votes · R+5.5 · R+10.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.8%
Joe Biden (D)47.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
7,460 two-party votes · R+15.0 · R+17.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)42.5%
Also on the ballot in Rhode Island
Neighboring districts
HD-41Shaina N. SmithMichael J. RileyFlip risk61%Rep.56%Dem. HD-42Edward W. StravatoRichard R. Fascia83%Rep.69%Rep. HD-43Deborah A. Fellela—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-46Mary Ann Shallcross Smith—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-53Suzanna L. AlbaPaul M. SantucciFlip riskFlip risk52%Rep.60%Dem. HD-54William W. O'Brien—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-55Arthur J. Corvese—>99%Dem.>99%Dem.