DemocraticIncumbent
Kwame Raoul
Incumbent attorney general (2019–present)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
Illinois › Statewide offices · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Illinois Attorney General
Raoul is very likely to win: Raoul wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Raoul (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Fioretti (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+20.8
- 80% of outcomes
- D+13 to D+29
- Partisan lean
- D+13
- Polls
- 1in our database
Raoul is very likely to win: Raoul wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Raoul (D)
98%
chance of winning
Fioretti (R)
2%
- Average margin
- D+18.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+9 to D+29
- Partisan lean
- D+13
- Polls
- 1in our database
Range of outcomes
The candidates
Republican
Bob Fioretti
Former Chicago alderman from the 2nd ward (2007–2015) and perennial candidate
- Experience
- Local office
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Illinois state offices
- +0.7Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
- Environment here
- D+10.2Used by the fundamentals
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0.32 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0.32 |
Polls
All 1 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Raoul | Fioretti | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling for Chicago News Weekly | Sep 30–Oct 1 | 569 LV | 52 | 38 | D+14 | D+15.9 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 1, 2026.
The state
Lean D+13: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 12,694,798
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 38%
- White, no degree
- 36%of adults
- White 58%
- Hispanic 19%
- Black 13%
- Asian 6%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
5,511,942 two-party votes · D+11.1 · D+12.6 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)55.6%
Donald Trump (R)44.4%
2022
4,083,552 votes · D+11.1✓ Kwame Raoul (D)54.4%
Thomas G Devore (R)43.5%
Daniel K Robin (L)2.2%
2020 President Vote in this state
5,918,806 two-party votes · D+17.3 · D+12.8 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)58.7%
Donald Trump (R)41.3%
2018
4,548,409 votes · D+12.3✓ Kwame Raoul (D)54.7%
Erika Harold (R)42.7%
Bubba Harsy (L)2.5%
2016 President Vote in this state
5,236,744 two-party votes · D+18.0 · D+15.8 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)59.0%
Donald Trump (R)41.0%