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Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

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What's the difference?

Oregon › Governor · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Oregon Governor

Fusion

Kotek is favored to win: Kotek wins in 2 of every 3 simulations.

Kotek (D)
66%
chance of winning
Drazan (R)
34%
Average margin
D+3.0
80% of outcomes
R+7 to D+13
Partisan lean
D+15
Polls
8in our database

Kotek is favored to win: Kotek wins in 2 of every 3 simulations.

Kotek (D)
68%
chance of winning
Drazan (R)
32%
Average margin
D+4.1
80% of outcomes
R+8 to D+17
Partisan lean
D+15
Polls
8in our database

Range of outcomes

D+3.0R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20
D+4.1R+30R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20D+30

How this race is decided

Cross-party nominations

A candidate can be nominated by several parties, such as Working Families or the Independent Party, and the ballot lists all of them next to one name. The forecast counts the candidate's votes once, under their main party.

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Kotek 66%Drazan 34%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Kotek 68%Drazan 32%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

Republican

Christine Drazan

State senator (2025–present), former minority leader of the Oregon House of Representatives (2019–2021, 2025) and nominee for governor in 2022

Experience
State legislature

Profile and career · Wikipedia

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast
Oregon state offices
+0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
Environment here
D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by the national and state moodD+23.9Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceD+20.5Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in Oregon and look-alikeplacesD+20.2Polling average7 polls, latest Oct 4R+0.4Horizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayD+2.9Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayD+4.0

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)1
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)0
Elected-experience edge0.33
First-term incumbent1
Seat's last result vs. expectation-5.09
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation-5.09

Polls

R+5EvenD+5Avg. R+0.4Feb 4Nov 3
All 8 polls
PollsterDatesSampleKotekDrazanMarginAdjusted
GBAO for Kotek's campaignD-sponsoredOct 1–Oct 4800 LV4642D+4R+1.6
DHM Research for The OregonianSep 24–Oct 1549 LV4644D+2D+2.4
DHM Research for Oregon Public BroadcastingSep 17–Sep 27915 LV4647R+1R+2.1
DHM Research for Oregon Public BroadcastingSep 17–Sep 27915 LV4446R+2R+2.1
DHM Research for Grow OregonSep 3–Sep 9600 LV4345R+2R+1.7
Public Opinion Strategies for Drazan's campaignR-sponsoredJun 22–Jun 24600 RV4448R+4D+6.5
Hoffman Research Group for Dudley's campaignR-sponsoredMay 11–May 12603 LV4545EvenD+4.9
FM3 Research for Charlie Health, an online behavioral health providerD-sponsoredJan 28–Feb 41,065 LV4540D+5

Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 4, 2026.

The state

Lean D+15: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentD+12.3D+10.1 vs. nation2020 presidentD+16.6D+12.1 vs. nation2024 presidentD+14.9D+16.4 vs. nation

Who lives here

Population
4,254,293
Adults with a B.A.+
37%
White, no degree
47%of adults
  • White 71%
  • Hispanic 15%
  • Black 2%
  • Asian 4%
  • Other / multiracial 8%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

2024 President Vote in this state

2,160,080 two-party votes · D+14.9 · D+16.4 vs. the nation
✓ Kamala Harris (D)57.4%
Donald Trump (R)42.6%

2022

1,952,842 votes · D+3.8
✓ Tina Kotek (D)47.0%
Christine Drazan (R)43.5%
Betsy Johnson (OTH)8.6%

2020 President Vote in this state

2,298,831 two-party votes · D+16.6 · D+12.1 vs. the nation
✓ Joe Biden (D)58.3%
Donald Trump (R)41.7%

2018

1,880,139 votes · D+6.7
✓ Kate Brown (D)50.0%
Knute Buehler (R)43.7%
Patrick Starnes (D)2.9%
Nick Chen (OTH)1.5%
Aaron Auer (OTH)1.1%

2016

1,944,707 votes · D+7.7
✓ Kate Brown (D)50.6%
Bud Pierce (R)43.4%
Cliff Thomason (I)2.4%
James Foster (L)2.3%
Aaron D. Auer (CST)1.0%

2016 President Vote in this state

1,784,509 two-party votes · D+12.3 · D+10.1 vs. the nation
✓ Hillary Clinton (D)56.2%
Donald Trump (R)43.8%

2014

1,463,063 votes · D+6.1
✓ John Kitzhaber (D)50.1%
Dennis Richardson (R)44.3%
Jason Levin (G)2.0%
Paul Grad (L)1.5%
Aaron Auer (CST)1.1%

2010

1,410,812 votes · D+1.6
✓ John Kitzhaber (D)50.8%
Chris Dudley (R)49.2%

2006

1,376,591 votes · D+8.5
✓ Ted Kulongoski (D)50.8%
Ron Saxton (R)42.8%
Mary Starrett (CST)3.6%
Joe Keating (G)1.5%
Richard Morley (L)1.2%

Also on the ballot in Oregon

U.S. SenateJeff MerkleyDavid Brock Smith98%Dem.97%Dem.