Democratic
Pennsylvania › Pennsylvania House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Pennsylvania House District 142
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (60%).
Egan is favored to win: Egan wins in 3 of every 5 simulations.
Egan (D)
60%
chance of winning
Hogan (R)
40%
- Average margin
- D+1.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+8 to D+12
- Partisan lean
- R+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (69%).
Egan is favored to win: Egan wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.
Egan (D)
69%
chance of winning
Hogan (R)
31%
- Average margin
- D+4.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+8 to D+17
- Partisan lean
- R+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Joe Hogan
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Pennsylvania state offices
- +0.8Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.3Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- −0.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.36 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -5.06 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -5.06 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+2: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 66,165
- People per km²
- 931
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 45%
- White, no degree
- 47%of adults
- White 80%
- Hispanic 4%
- Black 4%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
38,719 votes · R+9.6✓ Joseph F Hogan IV (R)54.8%
Anna K Payne (D)45.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
39,088 two-party votes · R+3.4 · R+1.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.7%
Kamala Harris (D)48.3%
2022
30,818 votes · R+0.2✓ Joseph F Hogan (R)50.1%
Mark Moffa (D)49.9%
2020 Earlier district lines
42,313 votes · R+22.4✓ Frank A Farry III (R)61.2%
Malinda Lauren Lareau (D)38.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
39,603 two-party votes · D+2.0 · R+2.5 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)51.0%
Donald Trump (R)49.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
34,210 two-party votes · D+0.5 · R+1.7 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)50.3%
Donald Trump (R)49.7%
Also on the ballot in Pennsylvania
Neighboring districts
HD-18Bryan F. Allen Jr.Kathleen TomlinsonD flipD flip78%Dem.75%Dem. HD-31Perry Warren—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-140Jim ProkopiakMichael J. Gettis98%Dem.91%Dem. HD-141Tina DavisKenneth James Velez99%Dem.91%Dem. HD-152Nancy GuenstEric Maier>99%Dem.99%Dem. HD-170Robert N. Gurtcheff IIMartina White94%Rep.72%Rep. HD-178Monica WeningerKristin Marcell86%Rep.76%Rep.