Two representatives per district
Each of the 35 legislative districts elects two House members, who run for separate seats (A and B). The forecast treats each seat as its own race.
Idaho › Idaho House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Idaho Legislative District 15
2 seatsBerch is favored to win: Berch wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Berch (D)
80%
chance of winning
Healey (R)
20%
- Average margin
- D+6.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+4 to D+16
- Partisan lean
- R+5
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Flip risk: Democratic-held seat, a toss-up (53% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Berch (D)
47%
chance of winning
Healey (R)
53%
- Average margin
- R+0.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+13 to D+12
- Partisan lean
- R+5
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
2 seats in this district
1.6 D · 0.4 R expected of 2 seats
0.9 D · 1.1 R expected of 2 seats
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Steve Berch
Democratic
Jae Etchart
Republican
Steve Keyser
RepublicanIncumbent
Dori Healey
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Idaho state offices
- −0.4Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.1Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mountain West adjustment
- +1.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.19 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 5.33 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+5: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 53,542
- People per km²
- 1,533
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 38%
- White, no degree
- 51%of adults
- White 79%
- Hispanic 10%
- Black 1%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
49,087 votes · R+2.5✓ Dori Healey (R)26.7%
✓ Steve Berch (D)25.4%
Annette Tipton (R)24.9%
Shari Baber (D)23.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
24,562 two-party votes · R+5.3 · R+3.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.7%
Kamala Harris (D)47.3%
2022
36,670 votes · D+0.6✓ Steve Berch (D)26.6%
✓ Dori Healey (R)26.3%
Steve Keyser (R)23.6%
Jeff Nafsinger (D)23.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
45,625 votes · R+1.7✓ Codi Galloway (R)26.2%
✓ Steve Berch (D)25.4%
Patrick E McDonald (R)24.0%
Jake Ellis (D)23.6%
David W Hartigan (—)0.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
25,447 two-party votes · R+5.2 · R+9.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.6%
Joe Biden (D)47.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
18,320 two-party votes · R+16.8 · R+19.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.4%
Hillary Clinton (D)41.6%