400-member House
The House has 400 members, one of the largest legislatures in the world. Districts are named by county and number ('Hillsborough 12'); many elect several members, and voters pick as many candidates as there are seats.
New Hampshire › New Hampshire House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
New Hampshire House of Representatives: Rockingham 31
2 seatsA toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Boudreau (D)
47%
chance of winning
Edwards (R)
53%
- Average margin
- R+0.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+10 to D+9
- Partisan lean
- R+1
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Boudreau (D)
51%
chance of winning
Edwards (R)
49%
- Average margin
- Even
- 80% of outcomes
- R+13 to D+13
- Partisan lean
- R+1
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
2 seats in this district
0.9 D · 1.1 R expected of 2 seats
1.0 D · 1.0 R expected of 2 seats
A floterial district: it has no boundary of its own and overlays towns of the county districts shown, on which it is modeled.
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- New Hampshire state offices
- −1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.06 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+1: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 1,394,868
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 41%
- White, no degree
- 53%of adults
- White 87%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 1%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
814,011 two-party votes · D+2.8 · D+4.3 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)51.4%
Donald Trump (R)48.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
790,575 two-party votes · D+7.5 · D+3.0 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)53.7%
Donald Trump (R)46.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
694,316 two-party votes · D+0.4 · R+1.8 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)50.2%
Donald Trump (R)49.8%