Democratic
Nathan Willems
Former state representative from the 29th district (2009–2013)
- Experience
- State legislature
Iowa › Statewide offices · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Iowa Attorney General
Bird is favored to win: Bird wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.
Willems (D)
36%
chance of winning
Bird (R)
64%
- Average margin
- R+2.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+11 to D+7
- Partisan lean
- R+12
- Polls
- 5in our database
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (61%).
Willems is favored to win: Willems wins in 3 of every 5 simulations.
Willems (D)
61%
chance of winning
Bird (R)
39%
- Average margin
- D+2.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+9 to D+13
- Partisan lean
- R+12
- Polls
- 5in our database
Range of outcomes
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Brenna Bird
Incumbent attorney general (2023–present)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Iowa state offices
- +1.2Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
- Environment here
- D+10.7Used by the fundamentals
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 13.78 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 13.78 |
Polls
All 5 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Willems | Bird | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cygnal for Iowans for Tax ReliefR-sponsored | Sep 9–Sep 11 | 500 LV | 40 | 40 | Even | D+5.8 |
| Cygnal for Iowans for Tax ReliefR-sponsored | Jun 16–Jun 19 | 600 LV | 39 | 44 | R+5 | D+0.7 |
| Global Strategy Group for the Democratic Attorneys General AssociationD-sponsored | Apr 6–Apr 9 | 600 LV | 43 | 45 | R+2 | R+6.5 |
| Fund for Economic Independence for Fund for Economic Independence, which supports BirdR-sponsored | Oct 30–Nov 2 | 1,056 LV | 41 | 41 | Even | D+5.5 |
| Fund for Economic Independence for Fund for Economic Independence, which supports BirdR-sponsored | Sep 9–Sep 11 | 600 LV | 46 | 39 | D+7 | D+13.5 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 11, 2026.
The state
Lean R+12: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 3,210,507
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 31%
- White, no degree
- 58%of adults
- White 82%
- Hispanic 7%
- Black 4%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
1,634,297 two-party votes · R+13.4 · R+11.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.7%
Kamala Harris (D)43.3%
2022
1,203,123 votes · R+1.7✓ Brenna Bird (R)50.8%
Tom Miller (D)49.1%
2020 President Vote in this state
1,656,733 two-party votes · R+8.4 · R+12.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.2%
Joe Biden (D)45.8%
2018
1,150,899 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Tom Miller (D)76.5%
Marco Battaglia (L)22.8%
Writein (—)0.7%
2016 President Vote in this state
1,454,652 two-party votes · R+10.1 · R+12.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)44.9%