400-member House
The House has 400 members, one of the largest legislatures in the world. Districts are named by county and number ('Hillsborough 12'); many elect several members, and voters pick as many candidates as there are seats.
New Hampshire › New Hampshire House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
New Hampshire House of Representatives: State House District Merrimack 12
2 seatsFlip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (46% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Beer (D)
46%
chance of winning
Seaworth (R)
54%
- Average margin
- R+0.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+10 to D+9
- Partisan lean
- Even
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (58% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Beer (D)
58%
chance of winning
Seaworth (R)
42%
- Average margin
- D+1.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+11 to D+14
- Partisan lean
- Even
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
2 seats in this district
0.9 D · 1.1 R expected of 2 seats
1.1 D · 0.9 R expected of 2 seats
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Mariana R. Beer
Democratic
Kenneth Nivison
RepublicanIncumbent
Brian Seaworth
RepublicanIncumbent
Peter L. Mehegan
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- New Hampshire state offices
- −1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.21 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -1.57 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean Even: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 7,438
- People per km²
- 126
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 32%
- White, no degree
- 66%of adults
- White 95%
- Hispanic 3%
- Black 1%
- Other / multiracial 1%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
8,224 votes · R+4.1✓ Peter L Mehegan (R)26.6%
✓ Brian Seaworth (R)26.3%
Dianne E Schuett (D)24.5%
Maurice Regan (D)22.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
4,454 two-party votes · R+1.0 · D+0.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.5%
Kamala Harris (D)49.5%
2022
6,111 votes · D+4.2✓ Dianne E Schuett (D)27.6%
✓ Brian Seaworth (R)25.3%
Maurice Regan (D)24.6%
Nick White (R)22.5%
2020 Earlier district lines
2,184 votes · D+9.9✓ Connie Lane (D)54.9%
Patrice Myers (R)45.1%
2020 President Vote in this district
4,246 two-party votes · D+3.1 · R+1.4 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)51.6%
Donald Trump (R)48.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
3,729 two-party votes · R+2.9 · R+5.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)48.5%
Also on the ballot in New Hampshire
Neighboring districts
State House District Merrimack 04Cody YorkMichael Moffett2 seats90%Rep.83%Rep. State House District Merrimack 09Muriel Hall—D vs D4 seats>99%Dem.>99%Dem. State House District Merrimack 11Al TurcotteMatthew Pitaro81%Rep.79%Rep. State House District Merrimack 13—Clayton WoodR vs R2 seats>99%Rep.>99%Rep. State House District Merrimack 14Glenn HornerGary Matteson99%Rep.98%Rep. State House District Merrimack 22Alison MurphyJonathan R. Cate99%Dem.99%Dem.