Democratic
Ryan Peterman
Former legislative assistant to Jeanne Shaheen
- Experience
- No elected office
Iowa › Statewide offices · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Iowa Secretary of State
Pate is clearly favored to win: Pate wins in 7 of every 8 simulations.
Peterman (D)
13%
chance of winning
Pate (R)
87%
- Average margin
- R+7.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+15 to D+1
- Partisan lean
- R+12
- Polls
- 1in our database
Pate is favored to win: Pate wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.
Peterman (D)
32%
chance of winning
Pate (R)
68%
- Average margin
- R+3.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+15 to D+7
- Partisan lean
- R+12
- Polls
- 1in our database
Range of outcomes
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Paul Pate
Incumbent secretary of state (1995–1999, 2015–present)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Iowa state offices
- +1.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
- Environment here
- D+11.2Used by the fundamentals
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -4.68 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -4.68 |
Polls
All 1 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Peterman | Pate | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research for Peterman's campaignD-sponsored | Sep 11–Sep 14 | 704 LV | 40 | 42 | R+2 | R+7.9 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 14, 2026.
The state
Lean R+12: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 3,210,507
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 31%
- White, no degree
- 58%of adults
- White 82%
- Hispanic 7%
- Black 4%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
1,634,297 two-party votes · R+13.4 · R+11.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.7%
Kamala Harris (D)43.3%
2022
1,204,432 votes · R+20.2✓ Paul D Pate (R)60.0%
Joel Miller (D)39.9%
2020 President Vote in this state
1,656,733 two-party votes · R+8.4 · R+12.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.2%
Joe Biden (D)45.8%
2018
1,300,917 votes · R+8.0✓ Paul D Pate (R)52.7%
Deidre Dejear (D)44.9%
Jules Ofenbakh (L)2.4%
2016 President Vote in this state
1,454,652 two-party votes · R+10.1 · R+12.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)44.9%