Runoff if no majority
A candidate needs more than half the vote in November. Otherwise the top two meet in a runoff on December 1, 2026. The forecast shows the chance that a race goes to a runoff.
Georgia › Statewide offices · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Georgia Lieutenant Governor
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (78%).
McLaurin is favored to win: McLaurin wins in about 4 of every 5 simulations.
McLaurin wins Nov 3
76%
Runoff Dec 1
5%
Dolezal wins Nov 3
20%
Including the runoff: McLaurin 78% · Dolezal 22% to win the seat. In a runoff, Dolezal wins 51% of the time.
- Average margin
- D+4.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+4 to D+13
- Partisan lean
- R+2
- Polls
- 2in our database
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (73%).
McLaurin is favored to win: McLaurin wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
McLaurin wins Nov 3
71%
Runoff Dec 1
4%
Dolezal wins Nov 3
25%
Including the runoff: McLaurin 73% · Dolezal 27% to win the seat. In a runoff, Dolezal wins 51% of the time.
- Average margin
- D+4.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+6 to D+16
- Partisan lean
- R+2
- Polls
- 2in our database
Range of outcomes
How this race is decided
The candidates
Democratic
Josh McLaurin
State senator from the 14th district (2023–present)
- Experience
- State legislature
Republican
Greg Dolezal
State senator from the 27th district (2019–present)
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Georgia state offices
- −1.5Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
- Environment here
- D+8.0Used by the fundamentals
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 2.76 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 2 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | McLaurin | Dolezal | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Navigate | Jul 10–Jul 13 | 448 LV | 48 | 44 | D+4 | D+3.5 |
| State Navigate | Jul 10–Jul 13 | 448 LV | 43 | 39 | D+4 | D+3.5 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Jul 13, 2026.
The state
Lean R+2: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 10,940,407
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 35%
- White, no degree
- 33%of adults
- White 49%
- Hispanic 11%
- Black 31%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
5,211,134 two-party votes · R+2.2 · R+0.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.1%
Kamala Harris (D)48.9%
2022
3,910,348 votes · R+5.1✓ Burt Jones (R)51.4%
Charlie Bailey (D)46.4%
Ryan Graham (L)2.2%
2020 President Vote in this state
4,935,487 two-party votes · D+0.2 · R+4.3 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)50.1%
Donald Trump (R)49.9%
2018
3,780,304 votes · R+3.3✓ Geoff Duncan (R)51.6%
Sarah Riggs Amico (D)48.4%
2016 President Vote in this state
3,967,067 two-party votes · R+5.3 · R+7.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)47.3%