Democratic
Ohio › Ohio House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Ohio House District 52
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (64%).
Baker is favored to win: Baker wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.
Baker (D)
64%
chance of winning
Manning (R)
36%
- Average margin
- D+2.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+7 to D+12
- Partisan lean
- R+4
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (64%).
Baker is favored to win: Baker wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.
Baker (D)
64%
chance of winning
Manning (R)
36%
- Average margin
- D+3.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+9 to D+16
- Partisan lean
- R+4
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Nathan Manning
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Ohio state offices
- +1.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.22 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -8.24 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+4: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 123,028
- People per km²
- 552
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 31%
- White, no degree
- 57%of adults
- White 79%
- Hispanic 8%
- Black 7%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
60,133 votes · R+14.3✓ Gayle Manning (R)57.2%
Genevieve Flieger (D)42.8%
2024 President Vote in this district
63,099 two-party votes · R+4.1 · R+2.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.1%
Kamala Harris (D)47.9%
2022 Earlier district lines
41,960 votes · R+13.5✓ Gayle Manning (R)56.7%
Regan L Phillips (D)43.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
70,972 votes · R+26.7✓ Jennifer L Gross (R)63.3%
Chuck Horn (D)36.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
61,664 two-party votes · R+1.8 · R+6.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.9%
Joe Biden (D)49.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
51,761 two-party votes · R+3.1 · R+5.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)48.5%