Democratic
Utah › Utah House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Utah House District 20
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (46% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Graves (D)
46%
chance of winning
Ballard (R)
54%
- Average margin
- R+0.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+12 to D+10
- Partisan lean
- R+8
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (63%).
Graves is favored to win: Graves wins in about 3 of every 5 simulations.
Graves (D)
63%
chance of winning
Ballard (R)
37%
- Average margin
- D+3.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+10 to D+16
- Partisan lean
- R+8
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Melissa Ballard
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Utah state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mountain West adjustment
- +1.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.48 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -21.33 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -21.33 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+8: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 33,456
- People per km²
- 635
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 40%
- White, no degree
- 44%of adults
- White 77%
- Hispanic 14%
- Black 1%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
17,224 votes · R+32.1✓ Melissa Garff Ballard (R)66.1%
Lew E Jeppson (D)33.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
17,753 two-party votes · R+7.5 · R+6.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.8%
Kamala Harris (D)46.2%
2022
13,358 votes · R+29.0✓ Melissa Garff Ballard (R)60.8%
Phil Graves (D)33.4%
Daniel Rhead Cottam (L)5.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
20,545 votes · R+34.6✓ Melissa Garff Ballard (R)67.3%
Phil Graves (D)32.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
18,515 two-party votes · R+10.3 · R+14.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.2%
Joe Biden (D)44.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
10,626 two-party votes · R+19.5 · R+21.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.8%
Hillary Clinton (D)40.2%