Democratic
Utah › Utah House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Utah House District 16
Stevenson is clearly favored to win: Stevenson wins in about 19 of every 20 simulations.
Treasure (D)
7%
chance of winning
Stevenson (R)
93%
- Average margin
- R+11.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+21 to R+2
- Partisan lean
- R+24
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Stevenson is clearly favored to win: Stevenson wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Treasure (D)
10%
chance of winning
Stevenson (R)
90%
- Average margin
- R+12.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+26 to R+1
- Partisan lean
- R+24
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Bob J Stevenson
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Utah state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mountain West adjustment
- +1.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -4.13 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+24: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 46,253
- People per km²
- 869
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 38%
- White, no degree
- 46%of adults
- White 73%
- Hispanic 17%
- Black 1%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
17,624 votes · R+30.5✓ Trevor Lee (R)65.3%
Zeaid Hasan (D)34.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
18,000 two-party votes · R+23.3 · R+21.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.7%
Kamala Harris (D)38.3%
2022
13,108 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Trevor A Lee (R)48.6%
Steve Handy (—)35.3%
Brent Zimmerman (L)16.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
17,523 votes · R+34.8✓ Steve Handy (R)62.1%
Cheryl Nunn (D)30.1%
Brent Zimmerman (—)7.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
18,381 two-party votes · R+25.3 · R+29.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)62.7%
Joe Biden (D)37.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
11,341 two-party votes · R+34.1 · R+36.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)67.0%
Hillary Clinton (D)33.0%
Neighboring districts
HD-4Zane WoolstenhulmeTiara Auxier92%Rep.91%Rep. HD-8Kim JamesJason B KyleFlip risk76%Rep.54%Rep. HD-10Rosemary T LesserJim AlveyD flipD flip97%Dem.88%Dem. HD-11Dave CalderKaty Hall94%Rep.85%Rep. HD-14Brandon YoungJohn Taylor>99%Rep.99%Rep. HD-15Anne BerbertAriel Defay>99%Rep.99%Rep. HD-17Eric LastLili Bitner99%Rep.96%Rep.