2026 forecast · Updated Oct 21, 2026
Polls
1,897 public polls of 2026 races, the generic ballot and Trump approval from 272 pollsters, newest first. Each links to its race, its pollster and its original release. All pollsters and their ratings →
Most active, last 30 days: University of New Hampshire 18 · YouGov 17 · New York Times/Siena College 16 · InsiderAdvantage 15 · Marist College 15 · ActiVote 14 · co/efficient 14 · Trafalgar Group 12 · All 272 pollsters →
| Race | Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Margin | Forecast | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, Sep 3 · 1 poll | |||||||
| NV-2 | GBAO★½ for the Nevada Alliance, which supports Benitez-ThompsonD sponsor | Aug 31–Sep 3 | 500 LV | Benitez-Thompson 38 · Flippo 37 | D+1 | R 88% | thenevadaindependent.com ↗ |
| Wed, Sep 2 · 2 polls | |||||||
| NY-21 | Impact Research★½ for Gendebien’s campaignD sponsor | Aug 30–Sep 2 | 500 LV | Gendebien 44 · Constantino 47 | R+3 | R 71% | politico.com ↗ |
| NM-2 | SurveyUSA★★½ | Aug 28–Sep 2 | 554 LV | Vasquez 46 · Cunningham 43 | D+3 | D 90% | kob.com ↗ |
| Mon, Aug 31 · 3 polls | |||||||
| TX-35 | Normington Petts★★ for House Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.SD sponsor | Aug 27–31 | 500 LV | Garcia 44 · Cruz 45 | R+1 | R 58% | hub.nationaljournal.com ↗ |
| AL-2 | Tulchin Research★★ for the House Majority PAC, which supports Democratic candidatesD sponsor | Aug 24–31 | V | Figures 47 · Marques 47 | Even | R 80% | thehousemajoritypac.com ↗ |
| FL-22 | Tulchin Research★★ for House Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.SD sponsor | Aug 24–31 | V | Dandiya 46 · Askar 44 | D+2 | R 51% | thehousemajoritypac.com ↗ |
| Sun, Aug 30 · 3 polls | |||||||
| SD-AL | Lake Research Partners★★ for Gronli's campaignD sponsor | Aug 26–30 | LV | Gronli 43 · Jackley 47 | R+4 | R 98% | x.com ↗ |
| FL-27 | Bendixen & Amandi International★★ for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which supports RodriguezD sponsor | Aug 25–30 | 600 LV | Rodriguez 45 · Salazar 45 | Even | R 76% | politico.com ↗ |
| FL-9 | SEA Polling for Soto's campaignD sponsor | Aug 24–30 | 400 RV | Soto 41 · Green 41 | Even | R 74% | floridapolitics.com ↗ |
| Sat, Aug 29 · 1 poll | |||||||
| FL-16 | Sea Polling for Kelly Kirschner's campaignD sponsor | Aug 25–29 | 400 LV | Kirschner 40 · Gruters 39 | D+1 | R 79% | kellykirschner.com ↗ |
| Thu, Aug 27 · 1 poll | |||||||
| FL-13 | Hart Research Associates for House Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.SD sponsor | Aug 25–27 | 500 LV | Gray 51 · Luna 46+1 version | D+5 | R 74% | floridapolitics.com ↗ |
| Wed, Aug 26 · 2 polls | |||||||
| NV-2 | Strategies 360★★ for Benitez-Thompson's campaignD sponsor | Aug 22–26 | 400 LV | Benitez-Thompson 42 · Flippo 45 | R+3 | R 88% | rgj.com ↗ |
| GA-7 | 20/20 Insight★½ for Kozycki's campaignD sponsor | Aug 20–26 | 445 LV | Kozycki 43 · McCormick 46 | R+3 | R 91% | documentcloud.org ↗ |
| Mon, Aug 24 · 3 polls | |||||||
| OH-1 | Quantus Insights | Aug 21–24 | 509 LV | Landsman 47 · Conroy 43+2 versions | D+4 | D 95% | quantusinsights.org ↗ |
| AZ-2 | GBAO★½ for Nez's campaignD sponsor | Aug 21–24 | 500 LV | Nez 44 · Crane 46 | R+2 | R 84% | politico.com ↗ |
| TN-5 | Impact Research★½ for Molder's campaignD sponsor | Aug 19–24 | 500 LV | Molder 40 · Hatcher 48 | R+8 | R 94% | nationaljournal.com ↗ |
| Sun, Aug 23 · 2 polls | |||||||
| PA-1 | GQR★½ for House Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.SD sponsor | Aug 19–23 | 400 LV | Harvie 48 · Fitzpatrick 49 | R+1 | D 67% | x.com ↗ |
| KY-6 | Lake Research Partners★★ for the House Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.SD sponsor | Aug 17–23 | 400 LV | Dembo 45 · Alvarado 44 | D+1 | D 55% | thehousemajoritypac.com ↗ |
| Sat, Aug 22 · 3 polls | |||||||
| TX-15 | Public Policy Research/Texas Southern University | Aug 18–22 | 700 LV | Pulido 50 · Cruz 45 | D+5 | D 55% | static1.squarespace.com ↗ |
| TX-28 | Public Policy Research/Texas Southern University | Aug 18–22 | 600 LV | Cuellar 45 · Tijerina 34 | D+11 | D 91% | static1.squarespace.com ↗ |
| TX-34 | Public Policy Research/Texas Southern University | Aug 18–22 | 700 LV | Gonzalez 45 · Flores 42 | D+3 | D 76% | static1.squarespace.com ↗ |
| Fri, Aug 21 · 1 poll | |||||||
| CA-7 | Data for Progress★★ for Justice Democrats, Leaders We Deserve, and the Working Families Party, all of whom support VangD sponsor | Aug 18–21 | 651 LV | Matsui 28 · R — | — | — | x.com ↗ |
| Thu, Aug 20 · 2 polls | |||||||
| NC-7 | Public Policy Polling★★ for Hardy's campaignD sponsor | Aug 19–20 | 517 LV | Hardy 39 · Rouzer 45+1 version | R+6 | R 91% | drive.google.com ↗ |
| AZ-2 | Peak Insights for Crane's campaignR sponsor | Aug 17–20 | 400 LV | Nez 42 · Crane 53 | R+11 | R 84% | x.com ↗ |
| Tue, Aug 18 · 1 poll | |||||||
| NH-2 | Saint Anselm College★★½ | Aug 17–18 | 701 LV | Goodlander 50 · Williams 35 | D+15 | D >99% | anselm.edu ↗ |
| Mon, Aug 17 · 1 poll | |||||||
| NY-21 | J.L. Partners★½ | Aug 15–17 | 500 LV | Gendebien 40 · Constantino 50 | R+10 | R 71% | static1.squarespace.com ↗ |
| Thu, Aug 13 · 4 polls | |||||||
| AR-2 | Hendrix College★★ | Aug 12–13 | 1,112 LV | Jones 48 · Hill 44 | D+4 | R 67% | talkbusiness.net ↗ |
| MI-7 | Global Strategy Group★½ for House Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.SD sponsor | Aug 11–13 | 500 LV | Lawrence 49 · Barrett 47 | D+2 | D 65% | thehousemajoritypac.com ↗ |
| ME-2 | DCCC Targeting TeamD sponsor | Aug 11–13 | 621 LV | Dunlap 48 · LePage 49 | R+1 | D 51% | dccc.org ↗ |
| MI-10 | Global Strategy Group★½ for House Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.SD sponsor | Aug 10–13 | 600 LV | Hines 45 · Bouchard 45 | Even | D 55% | hub.nationaljournal.com ↗ |
| Wed, Aug 12 · 1 poll | |||||||
| FL-22 | Tavern ResearchD sponsor | Aug 10–12 | 551 LV | Dandiya 50 · Askar 50 | Even | R 51% | 242750075.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na2.net ↗ |
| Mon, Aug 10 · 1 poll | |||||||
| OH-7 | Bedrock Polling for International Association of Bridge, Structural, Ornamental and Reinforcing Iron Workers which supports Poindexter and The Next 50D sponsor | Aug 7–10 | 866 LV | Poindexter 43 · Miller 35 | D+8 | D 68% | documentcloud.org ↗ |
| Sun, Aug 9 · 3 polls | |||||||
| WI-1 | Impact Research★½ for Berman's campaignD sponsor | Aug 6–9 | 400 LV | Berman 48 · Steil 49 | R+1 | D 51% | drive.google.com ↗ |
| OH-15 | Hart Research for Leonard's campaignD sponsor | Aug 6–9 | 401 LV | Leonard 37 · Carey 41 | R+4 | R 65% | politico.com ↗ |
| PA-1 | Global Strategy Group★½ for Harvie's campaignD sponsor | Aug 5–9 | 500 LV | Harvie 43 · Fitzpatrick 47 | R+4 | D 67% | politicspa.com ↗ |
| Sat, Aug 8 · 1 poll | |||||||
| NY-21 | SurveyUSA★★½ for WNYT | Aug 4–8 | 612 LV | Gendebien 43 · Constantino 39 | D+4 | R 71% | results.surveyusa.com ↗ |
| Thu, Aug 6 · 3 polls | |||||||
| OH-7 | co/efficient★★R sponsor | Aug 5–6 | 615 LV | Poindexter 47 · Miller 33 | D+14 | D 68% | x.com ↗ |
| FL-13 | GQR★½ for Gray's campaignD sponsor | Aug 4–6 | 500 LV | Gray 44 · Luna 47 | R+3 | R 74% | cdn.sanity.io ↗ |
| FL-13 | Fabrizio, Lee & Associates★★ for Luna's campaignR sponsor | Aug 4–6 | 400 LV | Gray 41 · Luna 49 | R+8 | R 74% | cloudup.com ↗ |
| Wed, Aug 5 · 2 polls | |||||||
| OH-7 | Tavern ResearchD sponsor | Aug 4–5 | 635 LV | Poindexter 54 · Miller 46 | D+8 | D 68% | 242750075.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na2.net ↗ |
| AK-AL | GBAO★½ for Hill's campaignD sponsor | Aug 3–5 | 500 LV | Hill 42 · Begich 46 | R+4 | R 68% | punchbowl.news ↗ |
| Tue, Aug 4 · 1 poll | |||||||
| AK-AL | Data for Progress★★D sponsor | Jul 28–Aug 4 | 605 LV | Hill 37 · Begich 47 | R+10 | R 68% | filesforprogress.org ↗ |
| Sun, Aug 2 · 1 poll | |||||||
| NC-3 | Tulchin Research★★D sponsor | Jul 27–Aug 2 | 600 LV | Smith 41 · Murphy 44 | R+3 | R 84% | thehousemajoritypac.com ↗ |
| Sat, Aug 1 · 2 polls | |||||||
| IL-4 | Independent Center Voice for the Bullfinch Group | Jul 31–Aug 1 | 653 RV | Garcia 34 · Castillo 15 | D+19 | D >99% | independentcentervoice.com ↗ |
| VA-5 | Expedition Strategies for Perriello's campaignD sponsor | Jul 29–Aug 1 | 602 LV | Perriello 44 · McGuire 47 | R+3 | R 83% | drive.google.com ↗ |
| Thu, Jul 30 · 4 polls | |||||||
| OH-7 | co/efficient★★R sponsor | Jul 29–30 | LV | Poindexter 44 · Miller 39 | D+5 | D 68% | notus.org ↗ |
| AL-2 | DCCC★½ for Figures's campaignD sponsor | Jul 29–30 | 421 LV | Figures 46 · Marques 46 | Even | R 80% | dccc.org ↗ |
| KY-6 | DCCC★½ for the House Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.SD sponsor | Jul 29–30 | 474 V | Dembo 47 · Alvarado 47 | Even | D 55% | kentucky.com ↗ |
| ID-1 | Change Research★★ for Poll conducted behalf of John Stegner's campaign, who is an independent running for GovernorD sponsor | Jul 28–30 | 606 LV | Peterson 27 · Fulcher 48+1 version | R+21 | R >99% | static1.squarespace.com ↗ |
| Wed, Jul 29 · 2 polls | |||||||
| FL-11 | MDW Communications for Pericola's campaignD sponsor | Jul 28–29 | LV | Pericola 42 · Strada 42 | Even | R 85% | floridapolitics.com ↗ |
| FL-8 | Inquire LLCR sponsor | Jul 27–29 | LV | Jenkins 42 · Haridopolos 51 | R+9 | R 93% | floridapolitics.com ↗ |
| Tue, Jul 28 · 1 poll | |||||||
| SC-7 | Blueprint Polling★★ for Vincent's campaignD sponsor | Jul 27–28 | 557 LV | Vincent 37 · Fry 41 | R+4 | R 98% | holycitysinner.com ↗ |
| Mon, Jul 27 · 2 polls | |||||||
| MD-1 | Z to A Research for Schwartz's campaignD sponsor | Jul 23–27 | 482 LV | Schwartz 39 · Harris 52 | R+13 | R 97% | drive.google.com ↗ |
| TX-15 | Normington Petts★★ for House Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.SD sponsor | Jul 23–27 | 553 LV | Pulido 51 · Cruz 45 | D+6 | D 55% | mailchi.mp ↗ |
| Sun, Jul 26 · 1 poll | |||||||
| NY-18 | Global Strategy Group★½ for Ryan's campaignD sponsor | Jul 23–26 | 500 LV | Ryan 53 · Auringer 39 | D+14 | D >99% | politico.com ↗ |
| Thu, Jul 23 · 2 polls | |||||||
| CO-3 | Keating Research★½ for Romero's campaignD sponsor | Jul 21–23 | 500 LV | Romero 45 · Hurd 46 | R+1 | R 71% | x.com ↗ |
| OH-10 | Global Strategy Group★½ for Knickerbocker's campaignD sponsor | Jul 20–23 | 700 LV | Knickerbocker 42 · Turner 49+1 version | R+7 | R 57% | punchbowl.news ↗ |
| Wed, Jul 22 · 2 polls | |||||||
| NY-17 | co/efficient★★R sponsor | Jul 20–22 | 1,292 LV | Conley 45 · Lawler 50 | R+5 | D 87% | coefficient.org ↗ |
| SC-1 | GQR★½ for House Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.SD sponsor | Jul 15–22 | 400 LV | Lacore 48 · Honeycutt 50+1 version | R+2 | R 61% | thehousemajoritypac.com ↗ |
| Tue, Jul 21 · 1 poll | |||||||
| CO-5 | Global Strategy Group★½ for Killin's campaignD sponsor | Jul 16–21 | 450 LV | Killin 44 · Crank 45 | R+1 | R 66% | globalstrategygroup.app.box.com ↗ |
| Mon, Jul 20 · 2 polls | |||||||
| IN-5 | Impact Research★½ for Ford's campaignD sponsor | Jul 16–20 | 400 LV | Ford 46 · Spartz 48 | R+2 | R 90% | x.com ↗ |
| VT-AL | University of New Hampshire★½ | Jul 15–20 | 954 LV | Balint 63 · Malloy 25 | D+38 | D >99% | scholars.unh.edu ↗ |
| Sun, Jul 19 · 2 polls | |||||||
| CA-11 | Lake Research Partners★★ for Chan's campaignD sponsor | Jul 14–19 | LV | Wiener 45 · R — | — | — | politico.com ↗ |
| IA-2 | Global Strategy Group★½ for House Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.SD sponsor | Jul 14–19 | V | James 46 · Mitchell 45 | D+1 | D 52% | static.notus.org ↗ |
| Sat, Jul 18 · 1 poll | |||||||
| FL-8 | Public Policy Polling★★ for Jenkins' campaignD sponsor | Jul 17–18 | 633 RV | Jenkins 35 · Haridopolos 44 | R+9 | R 93% | floridapolitics.com ↗ |
| Thu, Jul 16 · 3 polls | |||||||
| CA-6 | The Bullfinch Group/Independent Center★½ | Jul 13–16 | 741 LV | Pan 39 · Kiley 35 | D+4 | D 87% | cdn.sanity.io ↗ |
| IA-1 | The Bullfinch Group/Independent Center★½ | Jul 13–16 | 705 LV | Bohannan 40 · Miller-Meeks 35 | D+5 | D 69% | cdn.sanity.io ↗ |
| ME-2 | Tulchin Research★★ for Dunlap's campaignD sponsor | Jul 11–16 | 600 LV | Dunlap 49 · LePage 48 | D+1 | D 51% | x.com ↗ |
| Wed, Jul 15 · 1 poll | |||||||
| FL-14 | St. Pete Polls★★ for Florida Politics | Jul 14–15 | 469 LV | Castor 46 · Beltran 38 | D+8 | D 73% | stpetepolls.org ↗ |
| Tue, Jul 14 · 1 poll | |||||||
| ID-1 | SurveyUSA★★½ for Zabel's campaign | Jul 7–14 | 480 LV | Peterson 35 · Fulcher 45+1 version | R+10 | R >99% | surveyusa.com ↗ |
| Mon, Jul 13 · 1 poll | |||||||
| VA-2 | Tulchin Research★★ for House Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.SD sponsor | Jul 9–13 | 700 LV | Luria 47 · Kiggans 47 | Even | D 78% | politico.com ↗ |
| Sun, Jul 12 · 1 poll | |||||||
| OH-10 | FM3 Research★ for House Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.SD sponsor | Jul 6–12 | 535 LV | Knickerbocker 41 · Turner 48 | R+7 | R 57% | drive.google.com ↗ |
| Fri, Jul 10 · 2 polls | |||||||
| WA-3 | Emerson College★★½ for the Northwest Progressive Institute | Jul 8–10 | 500 LV | Perez 42 · Braun 43 | R+1 | D 76% | nwprogressive.org ↗ |
| WA-3 | DHM Research★★ for Oregon Public Broadcasting | Jul 8–10 | 543 LV | Perez 44 · Braun 46+3 versions | R+2 | D 76% | opb.org ↗ |
| Thu, Jul 2 · 1 poll | |||||||
| PA-7 | GBAO★½ for House Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.SD sponsor | Jun 29–Jul 2 | 550 LV | Brooks 47 · Mackenzie 43 | D+4 | D 81% | static.notus.org ↗ |
| Wed, Jul 1 · 1 poll | |||||||
| NY-17 | FM3 Research★ for House Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.SD sponsor | Jun 27–Jul 1 | 509 LV | Conley 51 · Lawler 45 | D+6 | D 87% | politico.com ↗ |
| Tue, Jun 30 · 1 poll | |||||||
| MI-7 | Data for Progress★★ for Lawrence's campaignD sponsor | Jun 24–30 | 772 LV | Lawrence 48 · Barrett 46 | D+2 | D 65% | x.com ↗ |
| Sun, Jun 28 · 2 polls | |||||||
| KY-6 | GQR★½ for Dembo's campaignD sponsor | Jun 24–28 | 440 V | Dembo 39 · Alvarado 42 | R+3 | D 55% | insideelections.com ↗ |
| NC-1 | GQR★½ for Davis' campaignD sponsor | Jun 22–28 | 500 LV | Davis 45 · Buckhout 41 | D+4 | D 73% | x.com ↗ |
| Thu, Jun 25 · 5 polls | |||||||
| NH-2 | Saint Anselm College★★½ | Jun 24–25 | 802 RV | Goodlander 50 · Williams 31 | D+19 | D >99% | anselm.edu ↗ |
| OH-15 | Hart Research for House Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.SD sponsor | Jun 23–25 | 550 LV | Leonard 40 · Carey 45 | R+5 | R 65% | thehousemajoritypac.com ↗ |
| AL-2 | Impact Research★½ for the DCCCD sponsor | Jun 22–25 | 400 LV | Figures 44 · Marques 45 | R+1 | R 80% | hub.nationaljournal.com ↗ |
| MT-1 | Impact Research★½ for Forstag's campaignD sponsor | Jun 22–25 | 500 LV | Forstag 44 · Flint 44 | Even | R 64% | x.com ↗ |
| WI-3 | FM3 Research★ for the House Majority PAC, which supports CookeD sponsor | Jun 20–25 | 535 LV | Cooke 50 · Orden 46 | D+4 | D 58% | politico.com ↗ |
| Tue, Jun 23 · 3 polls | |||||||
| TX-28 | Pulse Science Decision for Tijerina's campaignR sponsor | Jun 21–23 | 400 LV | Cuellar 38 · Tijerina 46+1 version | R+8 | D 91% | x.com ↗ |
| VT-AL | University of New Hampshire★½ | Jun 18–23 | 887 LV | Balint 57 · Malloy 26 | D+31 | D >99% | scholars.unh.edu ↗ |
| PA-8 | Lake Research Partners★★ for House Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.SD sponsor | Jun 18–23 | 400 V | Cognetti 47 · Bresnahan 45 | D+2 | D 56% | thehousemajoritypac.com ↗ |
| Sun, Jun 21 · 2 polls | |||||||
| MN-2 | Harper Polling★★ for Pratt's campaignR sponsor | Jun 18–21 | 415 LV | Little 45 · Pratt 40 | D+5 | D 98% | alphanews.org ↗ |
| CA-22 | Tulchin Research★★ for House Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.SD sponsor | Jun 15–21 | 800 LV | Villegas 48 · Valadao 44 | D+4 | D 78% | politico.com ↗ |
| Sat, Jun 20 · 1 poll | |||||||
| OH-7 | GBAO★½ for Poindexter's campaignD sponsor | Jun 16–20 | 500 LV | Poindexter 43 · Miller 44 | R+1 | D 68% | static.politico.com ↗ |
| Tue, Jun 16 · 1 poll | |||||||
| TX-34 | Ragnar Research Partners★★ for Flores's campaignR sponsor | Jun 14–16 | 400 LV | Gonzalez 41 · Flores 44 | R+3 | D 76% | x.com ↗ |
| Mon, Jun 15 · 1 poll | |||||||
| AZ-2 | GBAO★½ for Nez's campaignD sponsor | Jun 11–15 | 500 LV | Nez 41 · Crane 44 | R+3 | R 84% | nationaljournal.com ↗ |
| Thu, Jun 11 · 2 polls | |||||||
| AZ-6 | Normington Petts★★ for House Majority PAC, which supports Democratic candidatesD sponsor | Jun 8–11 | 500 LV | Mendoza 47 · Ciscomani 45 | D+2 | D 64% | x.com ↗ |
| PA-8 | Impact Research★½ for Cognetti's campaignD sponsor | Jun 8–11 | 500 LV | Cognetti 46 · Bresnahan 45 | D+1 | D 56% | paigeforpa.com ↗ |
| Mon, Jun 1 · 1 poll | |||||||
| MI-4 | GBAO★½ for McCann's campaignD sponsor | May 28–Jun 1 | 500 LV | McCann 48 · Huizenga 45 | D+3 | R 53% | semafor.com ↗ |
| Sun, May 31 · 2 polls | |||||||
| NY-21 | Impact Research★½ for Gendebien’s campaignD sponsor | May 26–31 | 500 LV | Gendebien 44 · Constantino 45 | R+1 | R 71% | politico.com ↗ |
| WI-3 | Impact Research★½ for Cooke's campaignD sponsor | May 26–31 | 500 LV | Cooke 50 · Orden 46 | D+4 | D 58% | drive.google.com ↗ |
| Thu, May 28 · 1 poll | |||||||
| WI-6 | Tavern ResearchD sponsor | May 18–28 | 437 LV | Smith 39 · Grothman 61 | R+22 | R 96% | 242750075.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na2.net ↗ |
| Wed, May 27 · 1 poll | |||||||
| AK-AL | Tavern ResearchD sponsor | May 18–27 | 452 LV | Hill 48 · Begich 52 | R+4 | R 68% | 242750075.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na2.net ↗ |
| Tue, May 26 · 1 poll | |||||||
| NJ-7 | Z to A Research for 314 Action, which supports Shah | May 24–26 | 430 LV | Bennett 47 · Kean 43 | D+4 | D 85% | newjerseyglobe.com ↗ |
Margin: the poll's lead (D − R; approve − disapprove for approval). Forecast: the race's chance in today's forecast, which averages polls after adjusting for each pollster's house effect and track record. Stars: our pollster rating, three is best. Sponsor: polls paid for by a party or campaign are released selectively, and the forecast adjusts for that.