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Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

Indiana › Statewide offices · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Indiana Treasurer

Elliott is very likely to win: Elliott wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.

Kebe (D)
4%
chance of winning
Elliott (R)
96%
Average margin
R+11.1
80% of outcomes
R+19 to R+3
Partisan lean
R+19
Polls
1in our database

Elliott is clearly favored to win: Elliott wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.

Kebe (D)
17%
chance of winning
Elliott (R)
83%
Average margin
R+7.3
80% of outcomes
R+18 to D+3
Partisan lean
R+19
Polls
1in our database

Range of outcomes

R+11.1R+30R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20D+30
R+7.3R+30R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20D+30

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Kebe 4%Elliott 96%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Kebe 17%Elliott 83%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast
Indiana state offices
+1.2Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
Environment here
D+10.7Used by the fundamentals
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by the national and state moodR+8.5Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceR+13.5Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in Indiana and look-alikeplacesR+12.3Polling average1 poll, latest Oct 11R+7.1Horizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayR+11.1Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayR+7.3

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)-1
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)0
Elected-experience edge-1
First-term incumbent0
Seat's last result vs. expectation-5.13
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation-5.13

Polls

R+5EvenD+5Avg. R+7.1Oct 11Nov 3
All 1 polls
PollsterDatesSampleKebeElliottMarginAdjusted
Bellwether ResearchOct 8–Oct 11896 LV3843R+5R+7.1

Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 11, 2026.

The state

Lean R+19: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentR+20.2R+22.5 vs. nation2020 presidentR+16.4R+20.9 vs. nation2024 presidentR+19.3R+17.8 vs. nation

Who lives here

Population
6,851,073
Adults with a B.A.+
30%
White, no degree
55%of adults
  • White 75%
  • Hispanic 9%
  • Black 9%
  • Asian 3%
  • Other / multiracial 4%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

2024 President Vote in this state

2,883,950 two-party votes · R+19.3 · R+17.8 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)59.7%
Kamala Harris (D)40.3%

2022

757,367 votes · R+29.2
✓ Daniel Elliott (R)64.6%
Jessica McClellan (D)35.4%

2020 President Vote in this state

2,971,935 two-party votes · R+16.4 · R+20.9 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)58.2%
Joe Biden (D)41.8%

2018

2,211,563 votes · R+17.1
✓ Kelly Mitchell (R)58.5%
John C Aguilera (D)41.5%

2016 President Vote in this state

2,590,412 two-party votes · R+20.2 · R+22.5 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)60.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)39.9%