The New York Times/The Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena University

Polls

44 in 1 race

Rating

★★½2.3 of 3 stars

House effect, 2026

R+1.2Against other polls, in today's forecast

House effect, past elections

D+1.0Against other polls of the same races

Rated as Siena College, its polling partner. Based on 68 polls of 61 races taken in the last three weeks before elections from 2002 to 2024: they missed the final margin by 6.7 points on average, 0.7 points less than other polls of the same races.

Its polls run 1.2 points more Republican than other polls of the same races; the forecast removes that before averaging.

In past elections its polls ran 1.0 points more Democratic than other polls of the same races; today's estimate starts from that.