Democratic
Kansas › Kansas House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Kansas House District 33
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (78%).
Blanks is favored to win: Blanks wins in about 4 of every 5 simulations.
Blanks (D)
78%
chance of winning
Caiharr (R)
22%
- Average margin
- D+5.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+4 to D+15
- Partisan lean
- Even
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (73%).
Blanks is favored to win: Blanks wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
Blanks (D)
73%
chance of winning
Caiharr (R)
27%
- Average margin
- D+5.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+7 to D+18
- Partisan lean
- Even
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Carolyn Caiharr
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Kansas state offices
- −0.7Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.44 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -10.46 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean Even: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 29,307
- People per km²
- 248
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 25%
- White, no degree
- 51%of adults
- White 59%
- Hispanic 21%
- Black 9%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 8%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
9,253 votes · R+13.3✓ Mike Thompson (R)56.7%
Eli Woody (D)43.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
9,377 two-party votes · R+4.6 · R+3.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.3%
Kamala Harris (D)47.7%
2022
6,513 votes · R+5.8✓ Mike Thompson (R)51.4%
Bill Hutton (D)45.8%
Stephanie Barton (L)2.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
10,604 votes · D+7.9✓ Tom Burroughs (D)48.6%
Jordan Michael Mackey (R)41.5%
Rick Parsons (—)9.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
9,632 two-party votes · D+0.7 · R+3.8 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)50.4%
Donald Trump (R)49.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
7,660 two-party votes · R+7.3 · R+9.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.6%
Hillary Clinton (D)46.4%
Also on the ballot in Kansas
Neighboring districts
HD-18Cindy NeighborRobert Whitman99%Dem.95%Dem. HD-24Jarrod OusleyScott Speicker>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-31Emily HaneDennis Grindel>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-36Lynn MeltonBrian Dickason>99%Dem.99%Dem. HD-37Melissa M OropezaConnie Jo Henry>99%Dem.99%Dem. HD-38Richard PazTimothy H. Johnson99%Rep.98%Rep. HD-39Zach MaierAngela StiensD flipFlip risk60%Dem.52%Dem. HD-117Brandon HollandAdam Turk76%Rep.68%Rep.