Staggered Senate
Senators serve four-year terms, with one two-year term after each redistricting, so about half the seats are on the ballot each election.
Hawaii › Hawaii State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Hawaii State Senate District 20
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (55% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Owens (D)
55%
chance of winning
McDermott (R)
45%
- Average margin
- D+0.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+9 to D+11
- Partisan lean
- R+3
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (62%).
Owens is favored to win: Owens wins in about 3 of every 5 simulations.
Owens (D)
62%
chance of winning
McDermott (R)
38%
- Average margin
- D+3.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+11 to D+16
- Partisan lean
- R+3
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Markus Owens
Republican
Bob McDermott
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Hawaii state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Pacific adjustment
- −1.7How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.88 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+3: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 59,542
- People per km²
- 703
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 35%
- White, no degree
- 8%of adults
- White 14%
- Hispanic 14%
- Black 3%
- Asian 41%
- Other / multiracial 29%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
18,425 two-party votes · R+4.9 · R+3.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.5%
Kamala Harris (D)47.5%
2020 Earlier district lines
20,139 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Mike Gabbard (D)69.4%
Feena M Bonoan (—)30.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
18,459 two-party votes · D+2.2 · R+2.3 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)51.1%
Donald Trump (R)48.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
10,664 two-party votes · D+11.1 · D+8.8 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)55.5%
Donald Trump (R)44.5%
2012 Earlier district lines
13,049 votes · D+43.8✓ Mike Gabbard (D)71.9%
Dean Kalani Capelouto (R)28.1%