Kentucky › U.S. Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Barr is very likely to win: Barr wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Barr is very likely to win: Barr wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Range of outcomes
Former state representative (2019–2021), nominee for U.S. Senate in 2022 and candidate in 2020
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
U.S. representative from KY-6 (2013–present)
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.02 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 8.54 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Booker | Barr | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group for Booker's campaignD-sponsored | Aug 24–Aug 27 | 600 LV | 40 | 49 | R+9 | R+15.0 |
| Public Policy Polling for Booker's campaignD-sponsored | Dec 18–Dec 19 | 650 V | 38 | 49 | R+11 | R+14.3 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Aug 27, 2026.
Lean R+30: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.