DemocraticIncumbent
Cory Booker
Incumbent U.S. senator (2013–present)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $20.7M
- From individuals
- $15.3M
- Spent
- $9.3M
- Cash on hand
- $22.6M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
New Jersey › U.S. Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
U.S. Senate in New Jersey
Booker is very likely to win: Booker wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Booker (D)
98%
chance of winning
Murphy (R)
2%
- Average margin
- D+23.5
- 80% of outcomes
- D+11 to D+37
- Partisan lean
- D+9
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Booker is very likely to win: Booker wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Booker (D)
97%
chance of winning
Murphy (R)
3%
- Average margin
- D+18.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+7 to D+32
- Partisan lean
- D+9
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
The candidates
Republican
Justin Murphy
Former Deputy Mayor of Tabernacle Township and perennial candidate
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $63.2K
- From individuals
- $53.4K
- Spent
- $52.7K
- Cash on hand
- $9.6K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 3.54 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0.83 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0.83 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The state
Lean D+9: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 9,343,809
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 44%
- White, no degree
- 28%of adults
- White 51%
- Hispanic 23%
- Black 12%
- Asian 10%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
4,188,928 two-party votes · D+6.0 · D+7.5 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)53.0%
Donald Trump (R)47.0%
2020
4,440,540 votes · D+16.6✓ Cory Booker (D)57.2%
Rikin "rik" Mehta (R)40.9%
Madelyn R. Hoffman (G)0.9%
Veronica Fernandez (OTH)0.7%
2020 President Vote in this state
4,491,609 two-party votes · D+16.1 · D+11.6 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)58.1%
Donald Trump (R)41.9%
2016 President Vote in this state
3,750,211 two-party votes · D+14.6 · D+12.3 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)57.3%
Donald Trump (R)42.7%
2014
1,869,535 votes · D+13.8✓ Cory A. Booker (D)55.8%
Jeff Bell (R)42.3%
Joseph Baratelli (L)0.9%
2013 special
1,348,659 votes · D+11.0✓ Booker, Cory (D)54.9%
Lonegan, Steve (R)44.0%
2008
3,482,445 votes · D+14.4✓ Frank R. Lautenberg (D)56.0%
Dick Zimmer (R)42.0%
Jason Scheurer (L)0.5%
2002
2,112,604 votes · D+10.1✓ Frank R. Lautenberg (D)53.9%
Douglas R. Forrester (R)43.9%
Ted Glick (G)1.2%
Elizabeth Macron (L)0.6%