Top-two primary
All candidates run in one primary regardless of party and the two with the most votes advance, so two candidates of the same party can meet in November. The forecast then marks the seat as safe for that party.
California › Statewide offices · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
California Secretary of State
Top twoWeber is very likely to win: Weber wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Weber (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Wagner (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+27.8
- 80% of outcomes
- D+19 to D+38
- Partisan lean
- D+23
- Polls
- 1in our database
Weber is very likely to win: Weber wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Weber (D)
99%
chance of winning
Wagner (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+24.3
- 80% of outcomes
- D+11 to D+38
- Partisan lean
- D+23
- Polls
- 1in our database
Range of outcomes
How this race is decided
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Shirley Weber
Incumbent California Secretary of State
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
Republican
Don Wagner
Orange County supervisor from the 3rd district (2019–present) and former state assemblymember from the 68th district (2010–2016)
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- California state offices
- −0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
- Environment here
- D+9.2Used by the fundamentals
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -7.14 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 1 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Weber | Wagner | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independent Voter Project | Sep 23–Oct 2 | 2,906 LV | 41 | 31 | D+10 | D+16.2 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 2, 2026.
The state
Lean D+23: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 39,287,377
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 37%
- White, no degree
- 20%of adults
- White 34%
- Hispanic 40%
- Black 5%
- Asian 15%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
15,357,876 two-party votes · D+20.8 · D+22.3 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)60.4%
Donald Trump (R)39.6%
2020 President Vote in this state
17,116,679 two-party votes · D+29.8 · D+25.3 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)64.9%
Donald Trump (R)35.1%
2018
12,272,066 votes · D+28.9✓ Alex Padilla (D)64.5%
Mark P Meuser (R)35.5%
2016 President Vote in this state
13,237,598 two-party votes · D+32.3 · D+30.0 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)66.1%
Donald Trump (R)33.9%