Two senators per district
Each of the 17 Senate districts has two senators serving staggered four-year terms, so one seat per district is on the ballot each election.
West Virginia › West Virginia State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
West Virginia State Senate District 1
Chapman is very likely to win: Chapman wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Fluharty (D)
2%
chance of winning
Chapman (R)
98%
- Average margin
- R+18.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+29 to R+8
- Partisan lean
- R+40
- Polls
- 1in our database
Chapman is very likely to win: Chapman wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Fluharty (D)
5%
chance of winning
Chapman (R)
95%
- Average margin
- R+21.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+37 to R+6
- Partisan lean
- R+40
- Polls
- 1in our database
How this race is decided
Simple-majority veto override
A majority of the members elected to each chamber can override most vetoes; budget and spending bills need two-thirds.
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Shawn Fluharty
RepublicanIncumbent
Laura Chapman
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- West Virginia state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
- Environment here
- D+9.6Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Upper South adjustment
- +5.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.17 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -17.94 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 1 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Fluharty | Chapman | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Navigate | Sep 28–Sep 29 | 1,065 LV | 43 | 48 | R+5 | R+8.3 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 29, 2026.
The district
Lean R+40: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 101,178
- People per km²
- 78
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 27%
- White, no degree
- 68%of adults
- White 91%
- Hispanic 2%
- Black 2%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
37,739 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Ryan W Weld (R)100.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
44,753 two-party votes · R+39.9 · R+38.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)70.0%
Kamala Harris (D)30.0%
2022
31,004 votes · R+20.9✓ Laura Wakim Chapman (R)60.5%
Randy Swartzmiller (D)39.5%
2020 Earlier district lines
44,981 votes · R+6.0✓ Ryan W Weld (R)53.0%
Randy Swartzmiller (D)47.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
48,323 two-party votes · R+38.2 · R+42.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)69.1%
Joe Biden (D)30.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
53,379 two-party votes · R+42.4 · R+44.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)71.2%
Hillary Clinton (D)28.8%