Simple-majority veto override
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Tennessee › Tennessee House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Tennessee House District 83
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (64%).
Price is favored to win: Price wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.
Price (D)
64%
chance of winning
White (R)
36%
- Average margin
- D+2.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+8 to D+13
- Partisan lean
- R+6
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (53% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Price (D)
53%
chance of winning
White (R)
47%
- Average margin
- D+0.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+12 to D+14
- Partisan lean
- R+6
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Margaret Price
RepublicanIncumbent
Mark White
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Tennessee state offices
- −0.7Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Upper South adjustment
- +5.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.42 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -7.25 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -7.25 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+6: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 62,788
- People per km²
- 702
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 62%
- White, no degree
- 23%of adults
- White 66%
- Hispanic 4%
- Black 21%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
34,398 votes · R+15.8✓ Mark White (R)57.9%
Noah Nordstrom (D)42.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
34,211 two-party votes · R+5.9 · R+4.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.0%
Kamala Harris (D)47.0%
2022
17,231 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Mark White (R)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
32,874 votes · R+7.9✓ Mark White (R)54.0%
Jerri Green (D)46.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
38,264 two-party votes · R+5.9 · R+10.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.0%
Joe Biden (D)47.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
31,997 two-party votes · R+18.8 · R+21.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.4%
Hillary Clinton (D)40.6%