Democratic
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 73
Soboleski is very likely to win: Soboleski wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Simonds (D)
3%
chance of winning
Soboleski (R)
97%
- Average margin
- R+17.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+28 to R+7
- Partisan lean
- R+14
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Soboleski is clearly favored to win: Soboleski wins in 7 of every 8 simulations.
Simonds (D)
13%
chance of winning
Soboleski (R)
87%
- Average margin
- R+11.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+24 to D+2
- Partisan lean
- R+14
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Michael Soboleski
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.5 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -30 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -40 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+14: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 8,923
- People per km²
- 1
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 32%
- White, no degree
- 65%of adults
- White 94%
- Hispanic 3%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
5,631 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Michael A Soboleski (R)55.3%
Tiffany Bond (—)44.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
5,936 two-party votes · R+14.5 · R+13.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.2%
Kamala Harris (D)42.8%
2022
4,923 votes · R+14.7✓ Michael Soboleski (R)57.4%
Vincent Michael House (D)42.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
4,536 votes · R+27.7✓ John E Andrews (R)63.8%
Joshua Charles Woodburn (D)36.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
5,947 two-party votes · R+12.4 · R+17.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.2%
Joe Biden (D)43.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
5,169 two-party votes · R+17.0 · R+19.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)41.5%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.