Democratic
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 97
Crafts is clearly favored to win: Crafts wins in about 19 of every 20 simulations.
Watson (D)
7%
chance of winning
Crafts (R)
93%
- Average margin
- R+11.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+22 to R+2
- Partisan lean
- R+12
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Crafts is favored to win: Crafts wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Watson (D)
21%
chance of winning
Crafts (R)
79%
- Average margin
- R+7.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+20 to D+5
- Partisan lean
- R+12
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Dale John Crafts
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.49 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -30 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+12: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 9,750
- People per km²
- 168
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 23%
- White, no degree
- 74%of adults
- White 96%
- Hispanic 1%
- Black 1%
- Other / multiracial 2%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
3,416 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Richard G Mason (R)100.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
4,720 two-party votes · R+11.0 · R+9.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.5%
Kamala Harris (D)44.5%
2022
3,601 votes · R+19.7✓ Richard G Mason (R)59.9%
Scott Newman Gaiason (D)40.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
5,711 votes · D+34.3✓ Janice S Dodge (D)67.2%
William C Elliott Jr (R)32.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
4,772 two-party votes · R+12.8 · R+17.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.4%
Joe Biden (D)43.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
4,200 two-party votes · R+23.4 · R+25.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)38.3%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.