Democratic
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 43
Hampson is very likely to win: Hampson wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Hampson (D)
97%
chance of winning
Austin (R)
3%
- Average margin
- D+15.0
- 80% of outcomes
- D+6 to D+25
- Partisan lean
- D+13
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Hampson is clearly favored to win: Hampson wins in about 19 of every 20 simulations.
Hampson (D)
93%
chance of winning
Austin (R)
7%
- Average margin
- D+14.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+3 to D+27
- Partisan lean
- D+13
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.23 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0.7 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+13: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 8,238
- People per km²
- 18
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 40%
- White, no degree
- 57%of adults
- White 94%
- Hispanic 2%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
5,594 votes · D+11.2✓ Ann H Matlack (D)55.6%
Heather Anne Sprague (R)44.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
5,692 two-party votes · D+12.3 · D+13.8 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)56.2%
Donald Trump (R)43.8%
2022
4,874 votes · D+19.6✓ Ann Higgins Matlack (D)59.8%
Heather Anne Sprague (R)40.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
5,133 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ W Edward Crockett (D)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
5,441 two-party votes · D+15.3 · D+10.8 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)57.6%
Donald Trump (R)42.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
4,818 two-party votes · D+11.3 · D+9.0 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)55.6%
Donald Trump (R)44.4%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.