Democratic
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 124
Nathanson is very likely to win: Nathanson wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Nathanson (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Doherty (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+32.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+23 to D+43
- Partisan lean
- D+31
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Nathanson is very likely to win: Nathanson wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Nathanson (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Doherty (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+35.0
- 80% of outcomes
- D+22 to D+48
- Partisan lean
- D+31
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Scott W Doherty
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.94 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 3.44 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+31: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 12,120
- People per km²
- 119
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 63%
- White, no degree
- 34%of adults
- White 93%
- Hispanic 3%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
5,984 votes · D+32.3✓ Sophia Bailey Warren (D)66.2%
Annalee Z Rosenblatt (R)33.8%
2024 President Vote in this district
8,369 two-party votes · D+32.1 · D+33.6 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)66.1%
Donald Trump (R)33.9%
2022
5,316 votes · D+35.1✓ Sophia B Warren (D)67.6%
Lisa Markowski (R)32.4%
2020 Earlier district lines
4,791 votes · D+26.6✓ Joseph C Perry Sr (D)63.3%
Daniel R Lapointe (R)36.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
8,228 two-party votes · D+29.4 · D+24.9 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)64.7%
Donald Trump (R)35.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
6,597 two-party votes · D+17.0 · D+14.8 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)58.5%
Donald Trump (R)41.5%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.