Democratic
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 96
Jensen is clearly favored to win: Jensen wins in 6 of every 7 simulations.
Jensen (D)
86%
chance of winning
Clement (R)
14%
- Average margin
- D+7.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+2 to D+17
- Partisan lean
- D+6
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Jensen is clearly favored to win: Jensen wins in 6 of every 7 simulations.
Jensen (D)
85%
chance of winning
Clement (R)
15%
- Average margin
- D+9.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+3 to D+22
- Partisan lean
- D+6
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Kerryl Lee Clement
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.76 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -3.17 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+6: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 9,943
- People per km²
- 180
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 23%
- White, no degree
- 68%of adults
- White 85%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 4%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
5,047 votes · D+0.5✓ Michel A Lajoie (D)50.3%
Kerryl Lee Clement (R)49.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
9,756 two-party votes · D+8.4 · D+9.9 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)54.2%
Donald Trump (R)45.8%
2022
4,198 votes · D+2.9✓ Michel A Lajoie (D)51.5%
Jonathan M Connor (R)48.5%
2020 Earlier district lines
5,877 votes · D+1.2✓ Stanley Paige Zeigler Jr (D)50.6%
Katrina J Smith (R)49.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
5,383 two-party votes · Even · R+4.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.0%
Joe Biden (D)50.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
4,738 two-party votes · R+13.1 · R+15.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)43.5%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.
Neighboring districts
HD-88Dana N StaplesQuentin James ChapmanD flipD flip75%Dem.83%Dem. HD-92—Stephen J Wood>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-94Scott A HarrimanJanet Inger Beaudoin97%Dem.93%Dem. HD-95Kiernan Innes Majerus-CollinsBret M Martel>99%Dem.98%Dem. HD-97Thomas R WatsonDale John Crafts93%Rep.79%Rep. HD-98Kilton McCarthy WebbWilliam J St. Michel96%Dem.87%Dem.