DemocraticIncumbent
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 100
Ankeles is very likely to win: Ankeles wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Ankeles (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Barrett (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+48.5
- 80% of outcomes
- D+39 to D+58
- Partisan lean
- D+46
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Ankeles is very likely to win: Ankeles wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Ankeles (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Barrett (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+49.0
- 80% of outcomes
- D+37 to D+62
- Partisan lean
- D+46
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Brett Y Barrett
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.9 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 12.92 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 12.92 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+46: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 3,091
- People per km²
- 89
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 48%
- White, no degree
- 43%of adults
- White 86%
- Hispanic 3%
- Black 4%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
5,622 votes · D+56.6✓ Daniel J Ankeles (D)78.3%
Ivon H Prescott (R)21.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
3,465 two-party votes · D+46.7 · D+48.2 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)73.3%
Donald Trump (R)26.7%
2022
4,056 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Daniel J Ankeles (D)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
4,858 votes · R+44.6✓ Danny E Costain (R)72.3%
Carroll E Payne (D)27.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
3,349 two-party votes · D+44.9 · D+40.3 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)72.4%
Donald Trump (R)27.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
2,890 two-party votes · D+37.6 · D+35.4 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)68.8%
Donald Trump (R)31.2%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.