Democratic
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 84
Walker is very likely to win: Walker wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Dove (D)
2%
chance of winning
Walker (R)
98%
- Average margin
- R+15.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+25 to R+6
- Partisan lean
- R+18
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Walker is clearly favored to win: Walker wins in about 19 of every 20 simulations.
Dove (D)
7%
chance of winning
Walker (R)
93%
- Average margin
- R+14.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+27 to R+2
- Partisan lean
- R+18
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Mark Walker
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.97 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -4.72 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -4.72 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+18: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 10,616
- People per km²
- 30
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 32%
- White, no degree
- 64%of adults
- White 92%
- Hispanic 2%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
5,486 votes · R+25.1✓ Mark Walker (R)62.6%
Cassandra Anne Dove (D)37.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
6,024 two-party votes · R+18.9 · R+17.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.5%
Kamala Harris (D)40.5%
2022
4,631 votes · R+17.4✓ Mark Walker (R)58.7%
Barry F Powers (D)41.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
5,761 votes · D+7.3✓ Charlotte M Warren (D)53.6%
Scott B Taylor (R)46.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
5,814 two-party votes · R+14.5 · R+19.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.3%
Joe Biden (D)42.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
4,939 two-party votes · R+21.2 · R+23.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.6%
Hillary Clinton (D)39.4%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.
Neighboring districts
HD-80—Ernest M Fitts IV>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-82Christopher Alfred LeweyCaleb J NessFlip risk69%Rep.54%Rep. HD-83Timothy J BeckerMarygrace Caroline CiminoFlip riskD flip60%Dem.61%Dem. HD-85Paul Harris WelchAdrienne Paul80%Rep.64%Rep. HD-86Abigail N GeerRolf A Olsen Jr.Flip riskFlip risk51%Dem.53%Dem. HD-138Oliver D McAvoyJonathan Lee Kinney95%Rep.89%Rep.