Democratic
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 59
Ray-Saulis is clearly favored to win: Ray-Saulis wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Ray-Saulis (D)
95%
chance of winning
Reny (R)
5%
- Average margin
- D+11.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+3 to D+21
- Partisan lean
- D+10
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Ray-Saulis is clearly favored to win: Ray-Saulis wins in about 9 of every 10 simulations.
Ray-Saulis (D)
92%
chance of winning
Reny (R)
8%
- Average margin
- D+13.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+2 to D+27
- Partisan lean
- D+10
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
John Reny
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.48 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -1.56 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+10: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 9,862
- People per km²
- 188
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 28%
- White, no degree
- 66%of adults
- White 87%
- Hispanic 4%
- Black 3%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
4,844 votes · D+6.3✓ David M Rollins (D)53.1%
Marcus E Emerson (R)46.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
3,411 two-party votes · D+10.1 · D+11.6 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)55.0%
Donald Trump (R)45.0%
2022
3,984 votes · D+20.9✓ Raegan French Larochelle (D)60.4%
James E Orr (R)39.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
5,215 votes · D+14.9✓ Margaret M Craven (D)57.5%
John D Reeder (R)42.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
4,736 two-party votes · D+11.3 · D+6.8 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)55.7%
Donald Trump (R)44.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
4,024 two-party votes · D+8.3 · D+6.1 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)54.2%
Donald Trump (R)45.8%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.