DemocraticIncumbent
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 98
Webb is very likely to win: Webb wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Webb (D)
96%
chance of winning
Michel (R)
4%
- Average margin
- D+13.6
- 80% of outcomes
- D+4 to D+23
- Partisan lean
- D+8
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Webb is clearly favored to win: Webb wins in 7 of every 8 simulations.
Webb (D)
87%
chance of winning
Michel (R)
13%
- Average margin
- D+10.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+2 to D+24
- Partisan lean
- D+8
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
William J St. Michel
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.15 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -5.12 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -5.12 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+8: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 4,262
- People per km²
- 19
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 35%
- White, no degree
- 65%of adults
- White 94%
- Hispanic 3%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 2%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
5,903 votes · D+0.7✓ Kilton M Webb (D)50.3%
Guy M Lebida (R)49.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
6,570 two-party votes · D+8.6 · D+10.1 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)54.3%
Donald Trump (R)45.7%
2022
4,971 votes · R+4.4✓ Joseph C Galletta (R)52.2%
Orion Evenstar Breen (D)47.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
5,307 votes · D+2.1✓ Scott William Cuddy (D)51.1%
Jessica T Connor (R)48.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
6,324 two-party votes · D+7.8 · D+3.3 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)53.9%
Donald Trump (R)46.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
5,440 two-party votes · R+0.5 · R+2.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)49.7%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.
Neighboring districts
HD-51Rafael MaciasAnnalyse O Sarvinas>99%Dem.99%Dem. HD-52Sally Jeane ClucheyDavid W GuilmetteFlip risk64%Dem.56%Rep. HD-88Dana N StaplesQuentin James ChapmanD flipD flip75%Dem.83%Dem. HD-96Luke Dylan JensenKerryl Lee Clement86%Dem.85%Dem. HD-97Thomas R WatsonDale John Crafts93%Rep.79%Rep. HD-101Poppy T ArfordRavi Jackson>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-102Maura H PillsburyHenry Lloyd Lawrence III>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-103Karin Orenstein—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-104—R. Melissa Winslow>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-105Anne Palmer GrahamSusan E Fuller99%Dem.96%Dem.